Showing posts with label sustainability. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sustainability. Show all posts

Saturday, March 6, 2021

Prospects for Hydrogen

What are the prospects for hydrogen as part of a sustainable, green economy?

Hydrogen is perennially spoken of as a fuel of the future- clean, renewable, light. It is particularly appealing in an environment (like that of California) where solar energy is having a huge impact on the grid and causing rising portions of solar production to be "curtailed". That is, turned off. But even in California, solar power has hardly scratched the surface. Only few roofs have solar and the potential for more power production is prodigious. Over time, as more renewable sources of energy come on line, the availability of excess power at peak times will rise dramatically, prompting a huge need for storage, or other ancillary uses for excess power. Many storage schemes exist or are under development, from traditional water pumping to batteries, flywheels, gravitational weights, etc. Hydrogen is one of them, spoken of as a versatile storage and fuel medium, which can be burned, or even more efficiently put through fuel cells, to return electrical power.

A typical day on California's electrical grid. The top teal line is total demand, and the purple zone is power not supplied by renewables like wind, hydropower, and solar. During the mid-day, most power now comes from solar, an amazing accomplishment. Roughly 2 GW are even turned off at the highest peak time, due to oversupply, either locally or regionally. How could that energy be put to use?

Unfortunately, as a fuel, hydrogen leaves much to be desired. We have flirted with hydrogen-powered cars over the last couple of decades, and they have been a disaster. Hydrogen is such an awkward fuel to store that battery-powered electric vehicles have completely taken over the green vehicle market, despite their slowness in refueling. The difficulties begin with hydrogen's ultra-low density. The Sun has the gravitational wherewithal to compress hydrogen to useful proportions, at the equivalent of 100,000 earth atmospheres and up. But we on Earth do not, and struggle with getting hydrogen in small enough packages to be useful for applications such as transport. The prospect of Hinden-cars is also unappealing. Lastly, hydrogen is corrosive, working its way into metals and weakening them. Transforming our natural gas system to use green hydrogen would require replacing it, essentially.

The awkwardness, yet usefulness, of (reduced) hydrogen as an energy currency in an oxygenated atmosphere is incidentally what led life during its early evolution to devise more compact storage forms, i.e. hydro-carbons like fats, starches and sugars. And these are what we dug up again from the earth to fuel our industrial, technological, and population revolutions.

But how useful is hydrogen for strictly in-place storage applications, like load balancing and temporary grid storage? Unfortunately, the news there is not good either. Physical storage remains an enormous problem, so unless you have a handy sealed underground cavern, storage at large scales is impractical. Second, the round-trip efficiency of making hydrogen from water by electrolysis and then getting electricity back by fuel cell (both rather expensive technologies) is roughly 35 to 40%. This compares unfavorably to the ~95% efficiency of electrical batteries like Li ion, and the 80% efficiency of pumped water/gravity systems. Hydrogen here is simply not a leading option.

Does that mean we are out of luck? Not quite. It turns out that there already is a hydrogen economy, as feedstock for key chemical processes, especially ammonia and fertilizer production, and fossil fuel cracking, among much else. Global demand is 80 million tons per year, which in electrical terms is 3-4 tera watt hours. That is a lot of energy, on the order of total demand on the US electric grid, and could easily keep excess power generator's hands full for the foreseeable future. Virtually all current hydrogen is made from natural gas or coal, so the green implications of reforming this sector are obvious. It already has storage and pipeline systems in place, though not necessarily at locations where green energy is available. So that seems to be the true future of hydrogen, not as a practical fuel for the economy in general, but as a central green commodity for a more sustainable chemical industry.


Saturday, February 6, 2021

Competition

Balancing collaboration and competition for a healthy society.

The ongoing discussions about race and caste in America are plumbing the depths of who we want to be as a society, and of the human psychology of hierarchy and competition. As Darwin taught, competition is inherent to life. Winners don't just feel good, they live to fight another day and reproduce another generation. Competition is naturally at the core of human psychology and development as well. We only learn to know our selves against a backdrop of challenges overcome, and people to compare ourselves with. We celebrate the winners in art, music, politics, sports, business. Excellence only exists in comparison.

America was conceived from the first as a winners versus losers project. White Europeans, already sailing all parts of the known world in search of treasure and plunder in competition with each other and the other great Asian cultures, found a virgin land. At least virgin in that it hardly offered any competition, with peoples who were summarily exterminated or enslaved. That this domination was transferred to Africa as a convenient source of losers to be utterly dominated, and ultimately branded as an inferior caste in perpetuity, is at once spiritually shameful and also a natural consequence of the competive drive that inheres in all people.

Idealists then came up with a competing dream of socialism and communism, which was to be a sweeping antidote to all these racial, economic, and social injustices. But competition inexorably reared its ugly head, moving the field of play from its traditional moorings to the political and existential levels, even to the very nature of reality and truth, as seen in the Stalinist systems, and the numerous appalling dictatorial systems that copied it. There was no getting around the need to prove that some are more equal than others.

However we run our formal systems of government and economics, we live in countless competitive settings- socially, economically, sexually, in families and outside. No one loves unconditionally, or serves without reward. So the genius of civilization has been to tame and channel competitive structures and impulses to positive ends. Fairly rewarding work, or setting a standard of one sexual partner in marriage, are examples of rough attempts to forge stable, just, and positive social outcomes out of competitive instincts that if given freer license would destroy us. 

Slavery was a system that, while mostly stable and marginally productive, was also profoundly unjust. One tribe simply declared itself dominant, and used every insidious tool of indoctrination, oppression, and violence to maintain that position. Over time, the original source of the competitive superiority, (whether that was just or not), became irrelevant, and the disparity became as unearned by the oppressors as it was undeserved by the oppressed. It served in no way to expose the natural talents of either in a fair environment of self-expression and actualization through competitive effort. 

So over the history of our country, we have fitfully been waking up to this injustice and expression of erstwhile competitive success, and fighting over how to forge a new social contract. That is perhaps the main reason our political system is so bitterly divided right now. "Freedom" rings from the mouths of both sides. But for one it is typically the freedom to continue enforcing their inherited inequities and privileges. For the other, it is the quest to escape exactly those inequities, which have reified, (as they have similarly in India's caste system, over centuries), into a vast network of debilities, social dysfunctions, ingrained or instinctive attitudes, artistic modes and motifs, economic and geographic patterns.

The new social contract is obviously modeled on modern meritocracy, where all are educated as far as possible, all participate freely in the many markets that pervade our lives, from mating to consuming to job-finding and politics, and all benefit in proportion to their contributions as regulated by those markets. Historical inequities would have little influence in this world, while individual talent and character count for all. This assumes that such a meritocracy is a fair ideal, which many dispute, as the fate of the losers remains uncertain, and in our current version, unbelievably harsh.

But there is no ridding ourselves of competition, however blessed we are with countervailing instincts of empathy and cooperation. It is a rock of human nature, and of our personal development. The best we can do is to regulate it to be fair and moderate. That is, expressing the competitive success of the individual, not her forebears or tribe. And allowing enough benefits to winning to provide motivation towards excellence and success, without destroying the portion of society that necessarily will be losers in various markets. This is the perennial conflict (and competition) between right and left, Republican vs Democrat.

Saturday, January 30, 2021

On the Transition to Godhood

Kicking and screaming, humanity is being dragged into a god-like state.

We thought that harnessing electricity would make us gods. Or perhaps the steam engine, or the first rocket ship, or the atomic bomb. But each of those powerful technological leaps left us wanting- wanting more, and wanting to clean up the messes each one left behind. Next are biotechnology, gene editing, and robotics. What to do?

The fact is that we have powers that traditionally were only given to gods. Vast raw physical powers, the ability to fly, and the ability to communicate with anyone, anywhere, instantly, and to know practically anything at a touch. But the greatest of all is our power to derange the entire biosphere- destroying habitats, exterminating species, filling our geologic layer with plastic and radioactive debris, and changing the composition and physics of the atmosphere. 

We have not come to terms with all this power. Indeed half of our political system can't stand the thought of it, and lives in the fantasy that nothing has changed, humanity is not trashing its home, and we can live as profligately as we wish, if only we don't look out the window. Even more disturbingly, this demographic generally holds to a fantasy god- some bearded male archetype- who will either make magically sure that everything comes out OK, or alternately will bring on the end times in flames of wrath and salvation for the select, making any rational worry for the environment we actually live in absurd.

Judgement day is coming!

This, at a moment when we need to grow into our awesome responsibilities, is naturally disheartening. Growing up out of an infantile mind set, where our parents made everything OK, is hard. Adulthood takes courage. It takes strength to let go of fantasy comforts. But the powers of adulthood are truly god-like, especially in this age. We make and remake our environments, look deep into space, into the past and the future, know and learn prodigiously. We make new people. 

Is is clear, however, that we are not taking these powers seriously enough. Overpopulation is one example. We simply can not go on having all the children we want, taking no responsibility for the load they are putting and will put on our home, the biosphere. As nascent gods, we need to survey our domain holistically and responsibly, looking to its future. And right now, that future is rather bleak, beset by irresponsible actors resistant to their higher calling.

  • What to do about all the lies?
  • Another view of god.
  • Don't drive everywhere.
  • General breakdown.
  • How did South Korea do so well? Rigorous contact tracing and quarantine enforcement.
  • Greed in shorts.
  • Direct air capture of CO2.

Saturday, October 3, 2020

Eugenics, the Catholic way

Woe betide any tampering with God's nature! However, destroying it with overpopulation is OK.

The current Supreme Court battle puts a spotlight on Catholicism in law and ethics. With the impending justice, six of the nine will be Catholic. The more rightward Catholic justices are coming from a culture that has some peculiar views on itself, on key ethical issues, and on the future of the world. First is its self-righteousness. Fundamentalist Catholics like Antonin Scalia and Attorney General Barr are confident that they come to government service steeped in the most exacting and time-honored moral code- that of the church which has been in existence going on two thousand years. It is a church that has weathered millennia of political turmoil and tectonic shifts of philosophy. But does all that history make it right? Does durability imply anything other than a canny grasp of human psychology, both in keeping its parishioners in the fold, and in keeping the wheels of its authoritarian structures turning? I don't think so. Far better moral systems have been imagined and enacted, and the Church has, time after time, grudgingly taken them up, typically a century after the rest of society. Today, a Catholic woman is nominated to the Supreme Court. Maybe in a hundred years, a female cardinal? 

But what is particularly galling is the prating about the sacredness of life. William Barr has restarted federal executions, to add to all his other lying and subversions of justice, giving one a curious impression of this "culture of life". What is obviously a simple policy of patriarchal power is dressed up in gilded rhetoric of concern for "life", which, maddeningly, is swallowed as gospel by the women who are its victims. For opposition to contraception and abortion are foremost attacks on the agency and full personhood of women, who are demoted to vessels for male procreation. But the Catholic church's policy is not just patriarchy of a demeaning and sexist kind, it also constitutes a eugenic policy. Ron Turcotte, one of the great horse jockeys, born in a family of twelve children in French Catholic New Brunswick, recalled in his autobiography that the priest would make the rounds of local families and berate every woman who did not have babies in diapers. The Catholic imperative is to fill up the world with Catholics, no matter the suffering of women, families, or communities. The entire biosphere groans under vast overpopulation. And what is the answer of the Catholic church? More Catholics, more oppression, more mental straightjackets. Care for creation apparently does not extend to continence on the part of men, basic personal rights or autonomy on the part of women, or to creation in general.

Just another day at the Supreme Court.

So when I hear "distinguished" lawyers, scholars and ethicists from Catholic institutions pontificate about the evils of genetic engineering, stem cell research, or use of embryos in research, (not to mention abortion or assisted suicide, among many other topics) I can not take them seriously as intellectuals- as anything other than mouthpieces of an antiquated system of oppressive, and now catastrophic, archetypes of political and social power. It is one thing to be a scholar of an artistic tradition full of glorious human expression and yearning quests for deeper connection with whatever power animates the world. But with the loss of humanism, then Protestantism, Catholicism retreated into an intellectual fortress of defense, nostalgia, and counter-reformation. The Federalist societies, the constitutional textualists, the Opus Dei fundamentalists... this ecosystem that has funded and nurtured a conservative assault on US legal institutions, apparently heavily Catholic, all are backward time machines fixated on dead controversies and traditional, frankly eugenic, policies of world domination. 

Nominee Barrett's textualism, following Scalia, seems to endanger the last century or two of constitutional interpretation. Whatever is not explicitly enumerated in the text is not, by this view, in the federal government's power. This could include women, (other than the 19th amendment; notably, the word "he" is used repetitively to refer to the president, representatives and other officers), federal regulatory authority in countless areas such as labor, antitrust, and finance, and the very meanings of concepts like cruel and unusual punishment, militias, privacy, due process, "needful rules", and "general welfare". The constitution and statutes are frequently vague, precisely so that society can construct its meanings according to the spirit of the document, not a cramped view of its letter, or a psychoanalytic plumbing of its mental conditions of origination.

Nor is Catholicism alone in this backwardness and revanchism. Islam shares its authoritarian, righteous, patriarchal, misogynistic, domineering mentality, even while lacking a pope. It goes the Catholics one better by approving of polygamy, another eugenic gambit. Consequently, Islam has even higher birth rates than Catholicism, immiserating its populations, stoking misplaced resentment, and imperiling the biosphere. However, Muslims in the US are not at this time constructing legal pipelines into US federal judgeships or dominating the Supreme Court, so their similarities in this regard are of global, but not federal, concern.

  • Yes, religion is an issue here.
  • Extended video of Barrett expressing her views, as also linked above.
  • Abortion was perfectly fine in colonial America.
  • Our feudal future, clarified by the GOP.
  • Donald's hair is charged to the taxpayer. Also, Ivanka.
  • Maybe the whole business deduction system should be scrapped.
  • What happens if ACA dies?
  • State of our politics- getting people to not vote.

Saturday, September 19, 2020

An American Economic History, Through Farming

From plantations to free soil, and back to plantations.

Today, farming is a small part of our economy. But it remains existentially important, and politically and culturally significant far beyond its share of GDP. The family farm evokes the heartland, the honest toiler, the communal and salt-of-the-earth values of rural life. The United States was founded on the promise of land- ever more land taken from Native Americans for ever more white people to till. Land was the original job guarantee. Anyone disgruntled with their current condition could go West. Some created vast plantations or ranches, while most founded family farms. When some of the last arable land on the frontier became available in Oklahoma, it resulted in the notorious land rush of 1889, typified by "Sooners" who jumped the gun into this so-called unassigned territory. A generation or two on, they authored the dust bowl by their enthusiasm and negligence.

The late 1800's were a pivotal period. The frontier was closing, industrialization was changing the workforce and mechanizing farming. It was perhaps the high point of the family farm, as so movingly portrayed in its perils, pride, and community, in the film version of The Wizard of Oz. One underappreciated cause and purpose of the Civil War was to preserve free soil and free labor as the guiding principle in new territories and states. The plantation system of labor was the alternative, just as firmly rooted in American soil as the small family farm, and just as greedy for new frontiers. Plantations were the original corporate agriculture, driving an army of employees (i.e. slaves) over vast acreages of market-crop monocultures, typically cotton, tobacco, and, in the Carribean, sugar cane.

But, despite winning the Civil War for free labor, and adapting to progressively greater levels of mechanization, the family farm is dying, and has been dying for decades. A recent piece in the New Yorker describes the situation in Wisconsin, which has seen a steep decline in family dairy farms, driven out of business by the inexorable efficiencies and amorality of corporate farming. Capitalism is the remorseless agent, setting up new plantations on rebooted principles of cheap labor and enormous scale. Instead of slaves, the labor is now an unending flood of poor and undocumented hispanics, ready to work for less, and under poorer conditions, than "free" labor.

Is this the kind of capitalism we want more of? Is the kind of rural America we look forward to? It is more than a little ironic that rural America voted overwhelmingly for the Republicans, who offered nostalgic nostrums while being the foremost purveyors of capitalist fundamentalism, cheap oppressed labor, and rural decline. Thus some might say, they deserve what they are reaping. But that is merely spite speaking, not policy. It is clear that government policy has had a great deal to do with this evolution of farming, from lax labor policy to trade policy and growing regulatory and bureaucratic complexities, and explicit farm support systems that support corporate farms foremost.

So, we have been divided from the outset, between a corporate, plantation model of farming, and a small-holder, family model of farming. The memorialized plantations of Mount Vernon and Monticello are fascinating examples of the former, each originally worked by an army of slaves to create in this new land a rich, even refined existence for the lords of the manor. It was Jefferson's dream that America would be overspread by small family farms, even as he himself ran a brutalizing corporate operation. It was just one more of his romantic dreams, along with a discomfort with slavery that did not extend to emancipating his own slaves. But the US did indeed make his dream real across the Midwest by eradicating slavery and accepting floods of immigrants to run their own farms and found rural communities. 

The silo-inspired Emerald City. Was it a storage and processing cooperative?

It is clear that it will take deep changes in policy to preserve family farming, and humane and ecologically sound farming. Not just cash payments to farmers, as the current administration is attempting to save its political position, but a much more thorough rethinking of how rural America should operate. We need far stiffer rules for labor and ecological practices on large farms, so that the playing field is leveled. We need better support for cooperative processors, buyers, bankers, equipment supply, transporters, and extension systems so that small farms have the long-term support they need to survive. We need to edge away from stark capitalism towards a mixed model, for instance maintaining some price supports with intelligent government planning, so that farmers are not whipsawed by lethal market forces. And making those price supports graduated against farm size, to recognize the unique value, and unique challenges, of the small farm.


Saturday, June 20, 2020

The Silicon Age

This magical element brings us the modern age- in computation, and in power.

In geologic terms many regard the current epoch as the Anthropocene, based on our various far-reaching (and often obscene) effects on earth's biosphere and geology. But where are we in the sequence of cultural epochs, starting from the stone age, and continuing through the bronze and iron ages? This somewhat antiquated system of material culture-based divisions seems to have petered out with the iron age, about 500 BC. What came after? There was certainly a technological hiatus in the West (and perhaps elsewhere) around the dark ages, where iron remained the most advanced material, though one might make a case for concrete (a Roman invention, with extensive use in antiquity), glass, or porcelain as competitor, though the latter never had the broad impact of iron.  The industrial age was perhaps founded on steel- the new material that brought us well into the twentieth century, until we hit the atomic age, an age that did not age well, sadly, and seems to be headed for the scap heap- one that will be radioactive for eons.

Now we are clearly indebted to a new element- silicon. That it is the magic ingredient in computers goes without saying. But now it is also providing the power for all those computers, in its incarnation as solar cells, as well as light for our lives, as efficient LEDs. It is incidentally intriguing that silicon resides just one row down, and in the same column, from the central element of life- carbon. They have the same valence properties, and each have unusual electronic properties. For silicon, its magic comes from being a semiconductor- able to be manipulated, and in switchable fashion, from conducting to insulating, and back again. A magic that is conjured by doping- the peppering-in of elements that have either too many valence electrons (phosphorous; n for negative) or too few (boron; p for positive). Too many, and there are extra electons that can conduct. Too few, and there are positive charges (holes) that can conduct similarly.

Charge and electrochemistry across the p-n junction.

At the interface between n and p doped zones something amazing happens- a trapped electrical charge that forms the heart of both transisters and solar cells. The difference in composition between the two sides sets up conflicting forces of diffusion versus charge. Electrons try to diffuse over to the p doped side, but once they do, they set up an excess of electrons there that pushes them away again, by their negative charge. Holes from the p doped side likewise want to migrate over to the n doped side, but set up a similar zone of positive charge. This zone has a built-in electric field, but is also insulating, until a voltage going from p to n, which squeezes this zone to smaller and smaller size, making it so narrow that charge can flow freely- the diode effect. The reverse does not work the same way. Voltage going from n to p makes this boundary zone larger, and increases its insulating power. This, and related properties, gives rise to the incredibly wide variety of uses of silicon in electronics, so amplified by the ability to do all this chemistry on precisely designed, microscopic scales.

Solar cells also use a p-n doping regime, where the bulk of the silicon exposed to the sun is p-doped, and a small surface layer is n-doped. When a photon from the sun hits the bulk silicon, the photoelectric effect lets loose an electron, which wanders about and meets one of two fates. Either it recombines with a local atom and releases its photon energy as infrared radiation and heat. Or it finds the p-n junction zone, where it is quickly whisked off by the local electric field towards the positive pole, which is all the little wires on the surface of solar panels, taking electrons from the n-doped surface layer. The p-n interface has a natural field of about 0.6 volt, which, when ganged together and scaled up, is the foundation for all the photovoltaic installations which are taking over the electric grid, as a cheaper and cleaner source of electricity than any other. Silicon even plays a role in some battery technologies, helping make silicon-based solar power into a full grid power system.

Solar power is scaling to provide clean energy.

Silicon gives us so much that is essential to, and characteristic of, the modern world. Like carbon, it is very abundant, not generally regarded as rare or precious. But that doesn't mean it lacks interest, let alone importance.

  • Green hydrogen- a way to use all that excess solar.
  • Generic drugs from India and China: rampant fraud.
  • Meanwhile, an outstanding article describes the slow destruction of US pharmaceutical and public health capabilities.

Saturday, June 6, 2020

Eating the Wild Things

Despite humanity's long tradition of eating wildlife, it is high time to rethink it as a practice. 

The coronavirus outbreak certainly gives one pause, and time to think about what we are doing to the biosphere and to ourselves. It also makes one wonder about the wisdom of killing and eating wildlife. I have been reading a book about a different disaster, the struggles of the crew of the ship Essex, back in 1820. This Nantucket-based factory ship was hunting whales in the middle of the Pacific when, in an ironic, yet all too-rare turn of events, a huge male sperm whale rammed and sank the mother ship as the smaller whaleboats were out killing its relatives. Months of drama, extremity, and cannibalism ensue, (for the humans), after which a fraction of the crew survive to tell the tale. It seems to us now bizarre, and beyond wasteful, that street lights in Nantucket were lit with whale oil, and that people would sail all over the world's oceans just to kill whales for the oil in their heads and blubber. Humans have an instinct for survival, and for the most concentrated source of various goods, and, whether under the colors of capitalism or simple greed, think little of externalizing costs, no matter how brutal and far-reaching, whether eating each other, "fishing out" some rich source of food, causing extinctions, or setting Charles island of the Galapagos ablaze in an inferno (another episode that occurs in this ill-starred history). One must be "hard" in this business of living, after all.

Well, we can do better. Now, two centuries on, we are still abusing the biosphere. Some ways are new, (climate change, plastics, insecticides), but others are old, such as over-fishing. Factory ships are still plying the great oceans of the world, vacuuming up wild animals so that we can eat them. And not just do they derange whole ecosystems and litter the oceans with their waste, but they also kill a lot of innocent bystanders, euphemistically called "bycatch"- sea turtles, albatrosses, dolphins, whales, etc. Albatross populations are in steady decline, from very low levels and heading towards extinction, for one main reason, which is the fishing industry.


This simply has to stop. It is a tragedy of the commons, on a collossal scale, all for the atavistic desire to eat wild animals. Human overpopulation, coupled with technology, means that no wild animals stand a chance in an unregulated environment- not in Africa, not in Brazil, and not in the international oceans. We are killing them by a thousand cuts, but do we also have to eat them, as the final indignity and form of waste?

If we want to save the biosphere from utter impoverishment, humanity needs a change of heart- an ethic for keeping the wild biosphere wild, rather than running it like so much farmland, or so much "resource" to be pillaged, whether "sustainably" or not. Obviously, eating meat at all is a fraught issue- ethically, and environmentally. But surely we can agree that wild animals, and wild ecosystems, deserve a break? Conversely, where we have so screwed up ecosystems by eliminating natural predators or introducing invasive species, we may have to kill (and yes, perhaps eat) wild animals in systematic fashion, to bring back a functional balance. Go to town on feral hogs, boa constrictors, Asian carp, etc. (But try to do so without poisoning yourselves and the evironment with lead.) The point is that we are stewards of this Earth now, like it or not, and ensuing generations over the next hundreds and thousands of years deserve an Earth with a functioning biosphere, with some semblance of its original richness.

  • Lying is a weapon of war.
  • It's the same old Pakistan.
  • Astronomers take a whack at the virus.
  • What to do after the protests. And then prohibit public employee unions from corrupting political campaigns. And then prohibit all other special interests from corrupting campaigns as well, for good measure.

Saturday, April 4, 2020

How do we Get Out of Here?

It is hard to tell just yet how the coronavirus lockdown will end. Some scenarios.

With the US having frittered away its early opportunity to contain incoming travel and the spread of SARS-CoV-2, we lost containment and now have an endemic pandemic. Nor are our health authorities pursuing definitive contact tracing and quarantine of all cases/contacts- some regions of the country are even well beyond this possibility. Time lines for the lockdown are being progressively extended, without a clear end-game in sight. Where will it end?

The China Solution
China has done draconian quarantines and close tracking, contact tracing, and isolation. And they have stamped out the epidemic, other than a tickle of cases, supposedly mostly coming from abroad. How ironic, but also impressive. They have used institutions and norms of close social control, sometimes rather blunt and indiscriminate, to get the upper hand over this contagion. The prospects for us doing the same are dim. Neither our public officials nor population have the stomach for it. Thus this is not a realistic scenario as an endgame for the US pandemic.

Slow burn
No, we take a more relaxed approach, hoping that the pandemic will magically recede. But that is unlikely to happen, given the vast reservoir of uninfected people, and the virus's high infectivity. So far, the US has ~300,000 cases, and ~8,000 deaths. Assuming that the reported case rate is one-tenth of actual cases, there might be three million people who have been exposed and recovered, out of a population of over 300 million. Exposing everyone would thus result in roughly a million deaths. This will happen no matter how good our social isolation is, or how long it lasts, because the minute anyone pokes their head out, they will be exposed. Without comprehensive tracking and isolation of cases/contacts, our laissez-faire approach leads to a slow burn (also termed flattening the curve) where our hospitals might be able to keep up with the extended crisis, but we still take an enormous hit in illness and death.

Exposure testing
One supplement to the slow burn scenario is the addition of exposure testing, for antigens to SARS-CoV-2. If these tests were broadly offered, like at grocery stores and by home delivery, we could at least recognize a large population that is immune and thus can move freely, (perhaps wearing a scarlet letter!), helping to re-establish economic and other essential activities. This is like having some amount of herd immunity, without waiting for the entire population to have been exposed. But it would not significantly curtail the slow burn, since we are still unwilling to keep everyone else out of circulation in a comprehensive fashion.

County quarantine
Some areas of the country are doing much better than others, and could set up local clean zones and boundaries. Once cases were reduced to a small trickle, the health departments could do what they failed to do at the outset, which is to block and test at all borders, and comprehensively trace contacts and enforce isolation internally. Given the large and necessary traffic of deliveries of goods, especially food, this is quite unlikely to happen, and would represent a sort of breakdown of our political society. But the behavior of the Federal administration, giving a "you're on your own" message to states and localities, does make this scenario more likely. It also ends up being a sort of slow burn, since any locality can not forever keep up such isolation. It would have to continue until the advent of a final solution- a vaccine or treatment.

Vaccine or treatment
This is the magic solution everyone is waiting for. The antivax movement isn't looking so good at this moment,when everyone's attention is focused on virology, epidemiology, and public health. Candidate vaccines are easy to dream up- any protein from the virus could be expressed in some heterologous system (like in E. coli cells or yeast cells) in massive amounts, and injected into people to generate immune responses. But effective vaccines are another story. Coronaviruses and other respiratory viruses tend not to generate strong and durable immune responses. That means that their ingredients just are not that immunogenic- they have devious ways to hide from immune surveillance, for one thing. Indeed, we still do not have good vaccines (or treatments) against the common cold. So a good vaccine will need to use all the tricks of the trade, such as multiple protein pieces, both invariant and variable, and immune-stimulating adjuvants/additives, to make an effective vaccine. It may take a year, but it may also take several years.

It looks like we will be in this lockdown for a very long time, with reduced economic and social activity. And the more effective our social distancing, the longer we will have to stay isolated, as the flatter curve extends out in time. If we go down the China route with more draconian methods to stamp it out before it burns through the whole population, we will be in a very precarious situation until a treatment emerges, given the wide-spread, now endemic, presence of this virus world-wide if not in continuing hot spots in the US.

  • For those locked in ..
  • How China is controlling spread while getting back to work.

Saturday, February 8, 2020

De-carbonize it

... Sung to the tune of Peter Tosh's "Legalize it". How are we doing on greenhouse gas emissions? Not very well, if the goal is zero.

Climate heating has, over the last few decades, changed from a theoretical spectre to a universal reality. The seasons have shifted. The weather is more extreme. The fires have ravaged whole regions. The arctic is melting, the corals are dying, and the wildlife is thinning out and winking out. But our emissions of CO2, far from declining, keep reaching yearly highs. Humanity is not facing up to this crisis.

Global CO2 emissions keep going up, while the climate has already gone out of bounds.

The goal needs to be zero. Zero emissions, not in 30 years, but as soon as humanly possible. Here in California, we pride ourselves in a progressive and leading-edge approach to climate policy. So how are we doing? A graph of CO2 emissions shows that California emissions have been going down since a peak in 2004, and now are roughly at 85% of that peak, despite increases in population and GDP. That is laudable of course. But we are still emitting hundreds of millions of metric tons of CO2 per year. Millions of tons that will be extremely difficult to recapture, as we inevitably will have to if we want to restore the Earth's climate to a semblance of the form it had for the last few million years of evolution across the biosphere.

California CO2 emissions. Going in the right direction, but far from zero. Note the Y axis cut off at 400 million metric tons CO2 per year.

Breakdown of California emissions. Note how refinery emissions alone are higher than all household emissions (principally heating).

Can we get to zero? Yes, we can if we are serious enough. There are two ingredients to get there. One is policy to drive the change, and the other is the technical means to get there. One optimal policy is a stiff carbon tax. California already has a sort-of carbon cap/pricing system, covering a fraction of emitters and using a market-based mechanism that has sent prices under $20 per metric ton. This is not enough to make a difference, being the equivalent of about 15 cents per gallon of gasoline. To be serious, we would wish to triple the cost of gasoline, which would get users off of fossil fuels in a hurry. Such a tax would come to about $700 per metric ton of CO2 emissions- an unprecedented level when you look at carbon pricing schemes around the world, but if we want results we need to think about serious policy to get there. In order to insulate such tax systems from cost-shifting to other countries, they would need a complex system of boundary taxes to make sure that imported goods and forms of energy are all subject to the same effective carbon taxation, so that in-state sources are not penalized. This is an important goal for international agreements like the Paris accords, to make such boundary taxation normal and systematic, preventing races to the bottom of emissions regulation. It is the only way that any jurisdiction can set up a strong carbon taxing/pricing system.

Can we get to zero? The technical means are not all in place, but given enough motive force from policy, we can get there very soon. The key is storage. Fossil fuels not only hold huge amounts of solar energy, but they have stably locked them up for tens of millions of years, just waiting for humanity to mine them out and burn them up. Their storability turns out to be as significant as their energy density. Solar and wind energy do not have that property, and we are just beginning to devise the means to store their energy at scale, whether by chemical means (batteries, hydrolysis of water to hydrogen) or mechanical (pumping hydro stations, spinning rotors). Whether nuclear energy enters the mix is another and very appropriate question as well, as new, safer reactor designs become common, and a strong carbon tax makes them economically viable again.
 
Natural gas is not a transitional fuel- it is another fossil fuel, only slightly less bad than coal. Another fix for an addicted economy, like switching from heroine to oxycontin. We need to break this addiction, and as fast as possible, with strong policy that takes the problem seriously. Elizabeth Warren aims her policy at decarbonization by 2030. Bernie Sanders aims at 2050. Donald Trump says to hell with us all.

  • January sets another heat record.
  • Bumble bees are dying.
  • Quote of the week: "Here, then, is a discovery of new evils, I said, against which the guardians will have to watch, or they will creep into the city unobserved. What evils? Wealth, I said, and poverty; the one is the parent of luxury and indolence, and the other of meanness and viciousness, and both of discontent." - Plato's Republic

Saturday, November 23, 2019

Redistribution is Not Optional, it is Essential

Physics-inspired economic models of inequality.

Thomas Piketty marveled at the way wealth concentrates under normal capitalist conditions, as if by magic. He chalked it up to the maddening persistence of positive interest rates, even under conditions where capital is in vast excess. Once you have a certain amount of wealth, and given even modest interest, money just breeds on its own, certainly without labor, and almost without thinking.

A recent Scientific American article offered a different explanation, cast in a more physics-style framework. It recounts what is called a "yard sale" model of a perfectly free economic exchange, where each transaction is voluntary and transfers net wealth in a random direction. Even under such conditions, wealth concentrates inexorably, till one agent owns everything. Why? The treatment is a bit like statistical mechanics of gasses, that follow random walks of individual particles. But where gasses are subject to constant balancing force of pressure that strongly discourages undue concentrations, the economic system contains the opposite- ratchets by which each agent greedily holds on to what it has. At the same time, poorer agents can only transact from what little they have, but stand to lose more (relatively) when they do. They thus have a stricter limit on how often they can play the game, and are driven to penury long before wealthier players. Even a small wealth advantage insulates that player against random adversity. Put that through a lengthy random walk, and the inevitable result is that all the wealth ends up in one place.
"In the absence of any kind of wealth redistribution, Boghosian et al. proved that all of the wealth in the system is eventually held by a single agent. This is due to a subtle but inexorable bias in favor of the wealthy in the rules of the YSM [yard sale model]: Because a fraction of the poorer agent’s wealth is traded, the wealthy do not stake as large a fraction of their wealth in any given transaction, and therefore can lose more frequently without risking their status. This is ultimately due to the multiplicative nature of the transactions on the agents’ wealth, as pointed out by Moukarzel." - Boghosian, Devitt-Lee, Wang, 2016
"If we begin at the point 1/2, the initial step size is 1/4. Suppose the first move is to the right, reaching the point 3/4. Now the step size is 1/8. If we turn back to the left, we do not return to our starting point but instead stop at 5/8. Where will we wind up after n steps? The probability distribution for this process has an intricate fractal structure, so there is no simple answer, but the likeliest landing places get steadily closer to the end points of the interval as n increases. This skewed probability distribution is the ratchetlike mechanism that drives the yard-sale model to states of extreme imbalance." ... "If some mechanism like that of the yard-sale model is truly at work, then markets might very well be free and fair, and the playing field perfectly level, and yet the outcome would almost surely be that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer." - Hayes, 2002

It is important to emphasize that the yard sale model is a libertarian's dream. It models perfect freedom and voluntary economic activity, if on a very simplistic level. But its implications are profound. It describes why most people in a free economic system own little more than their labor. The authors supplement this model with three more parameters, to align it better with reality. First is a wealth advantage factor. Our free economic system is not free or fair as a matter of fact, and the wealthy have many economic advantages, from lower interest rates (on loans), better returns on investments, to better education and more political power. Obviously, this is hardly conducive to greater equality, but rather to sharper and faster inequality. Second is a redistribution factor, in recognition that taxes and other costs have a redistributing effect, however small. And third is an allowance for negative wealth, which characterizes a fair portion of most societies, given our addiction to debt. Using these extra factors, these researchers can easily model wealth distributions that match reality very closely.

Lorenz curves showing income inequality in the US, and its growth in recent decades. Higher income families are on the right bottom, and their cumulative share of income are dramatically higher than those of lower income families. This graph gives rise to the Gini coefficient. Since this graph is binned in quintiles, it hides even more dramatic acceleration of income at the highest 10%, 1% and 0.1% levels.

An example of a model curve. The teal area (C) represents negative wealth, a fact of life for much of the population. The intersection of curve B with the right axis represents a result where one person or family is has 40% of all wealth. We are not quite there in reality, but it is not an unrealistic outcome considering current trends. Gini coefficients are generally defined as the areas A/(A+B).

The article, and other work from this group, finds that the redistrubution factor is absolutely critical to the fate of society. Sufficiently high, it can perpetually forestall collapse to total inequality, or even oligarchy, which is the common human condition. But if left below that threshold, it may delay, but can not forestall the inevitable.

What is that threshold? Obviously, it depends quite a bit on the nature of the society- on its settings of wealth advantage and redistribution. But rather small amounts of redistribution, on the order of 1 or 2 %, prevent complete concentration in one person's or oligarchy's hands. To make a just society, however, one that mitigates all this accidental unfairness of distribution, would take a great deal more.

There have traditionally been several social solutions to gross inequality, after humanity gained the capacity to account and accumulate wealth. One is public works and the dole, which the Romans were partial to. In their heyday, the rich vied to attain high offices and fund great works which benefitted Roman society. Another is a debt jubilee, where debts were forgiven at some interval or on special occasions. Another, of course, is revolution and forcible reforms of land and other forms of wealth. Karl Marx, along with many others, clearly sensed that something was deeply wrong with the capitalist system when allowed to run unfettered. And despite all the ameliorating regulations and corrective programs since, we are back in a gilded age today, with all time highs of gross unequality. To make matters worse, we have been backsliding on the principle of inheritance taxes, which should prevent the transgenerational and wholly undeserved accumulation of wealth and power.

Redistribution turns out, on this analysis, to be essential to a sustainable and just society. It is not a pipe dream or violation of the natural order, or of "rights". Rather, it is the right of every member of a society to expect that society to function in a fair and sustainable way to provide the foundation for a flourishing life by building each member's talents and building the social and material structures that put them to effective use. Capitalism and free exchange is only one ingredient in this social system, not its purpose or its overriding mechanism. That is why the weath tax that has been proposed by Elizabeth Warren is so significant and has generated such interest and support. It speaks directly and effectively to one of the central problems of our time- how to make a sustainable system out of capitalism.

Saturday, November 9, 2019

Power

And lack of power.

The recent power shutdowns in California were maddening and disruptive. They also showed how utterly dependent we are on the oceans of fossil fuels we burn. With every convenience, gadget, trip, comfort, appliance, and delivery we get more enmeshed in this dependence, and become zombies when the juice is suddenly cut off. Not only is our society manifestly not robust, but every drop of fuel burned makes the problem still worse: the biosphere's decline to miserable uninhabitability. The children are right be be pissed off.

Do we have the power to kick this habit? This addiction makes opioids look like amateurs.  It won't be a matter of checking into rehab and going through a few weeks of detox. No, it is going to take decades, maybe centuries, of global detox to kick this problem from hell. Living without our fix of CO2 is impossible on any level- personal, social, political, economic, military. And the pushers have been doing their part to lull us even further into complacency, peddling lies about the risks and hazards they deal with as an industry, their own research into climate change and what our future looks like, not to mention our complicity in it.

Do we have the moral and political power to get off fossil fuels? Not when half of our political community is in denial, unwilling to take even one step along the 12 step path. I am studying the Civil War on the side, which exhibits a similar dynamic of one half of the US political system mired in, even reveling in, its moral turpitude. It took decades for the many compromises and denials to play themselves out, for the full horror to come clear enough that decent people had had enough, and were ready to stamp out the instution of slavery. Which was, somewhat like the fossil fuels of today, the muscular force behind the South's economy and wealth.

Do we have the technical and intellectual power to kick this habit? Absolutely. Solar and wind are already competitive with coal. The last remaining frontier is the storage problem- transforming intermittant and distributed forms of power into concentrated, dispatchable power. And that is largely a cost problem, with many possible solutions available, each at its price. So given a high enough price on fossil carbon, we could rapidly transition to other sources of power, for the majority of uses.

A 300 MW solar power plant in the Mojave.

Does the US have the power to affect climate change policy around the world? We don't have all the power, but have a great deal. If we were to switch from a regressive laggard to a leader in decarbonization, we would have a strong effect globally, both by our example and influence, and by the technical means and standards we would propagate. We could amplify those powers by making some of our trade policy and other relations more integrated with decarbonization policy.

Do individuals have the power to address these issues? The simple answer is no- all the virtuous recycling, biking, and light-bulb changing has little effect, and mostly liberates the unused fossil fuels for someone else to use at the currently criminally low prices. Individuals also have little power over the carbon intensity of the many products, services, and infrastructure they use. Maybe it is possible to eat less meat, and avoid fruit from Chile. But we can not unplug fully from this system- we need to rewire the system. It is fundamental economics that dictates this situation, which is why a stiff carbon tax and related regulation, with the associated political and moral will are so important.

Finally, does the State of California have the power to take responsibility for the PG&E mess? Absolutely, but probably not the will. The power shutdowns led to a common observation that the state should just buy PG&E at its bankrupt price and run it in the public interest. But keen observers have noted that the state's politicians would much rather have someone else to blame, than be saddled with a no-win institution that puts the blame on them. Power lines are going to cause fires in any case, unless we cough up the billions needed to put them underground. Customers will always complain about the price of utilities, so it is hard to see the state stepping up to this mess, or even reforming the public utilities commission, which has been so negligent as well.

  • Why did the GOP nominate, and the American people elect, a Russian asset to the White House?
  • Battle lines on health care.
  • Point to Bernie.
  • The church and psycho-social evolution.

Saturday, October 26, 2019

Meritocracy

Is meritocracy intrinsically bad, or good for some things, not so good for others?

A recent book review in the New Yorker ruminated on the progress and defects of the meritocracy, a word born in sarcasm, now become an ideology and platitude. I am not sure that the review really touched on the deeper issues involved, so am motivated to offer a followup. The term was coined by a British sociologist, which is significant, as it describes a fundamental shift from the preceding system, the class system, as a way of allocating educational opportunity, professional work, military grades, and social status in general. It would be natural for someone of the British upper class to decry such a change, though the coiner, Michael Young, was generally a socialist and egalitarian, though eventually made into a Baron for his services ... ironically.

The book review focused mostly on the educational establishment, where the greatest sea change has occurred. Where elite schools used to lazily accept their students from elite prep academies, from certain rich families and class backgrounds, now they make a science of student selection, searching far and wide, high and low, for the most meritorious candidates. Are SAT scores useful? Not very, the new consensus has it, especially as such tests unconsciously reproduce various cultural biases, instead of rendering the true grail- a score of merit, whatever that really might be. But anyhow the slicing is done, higher education is now an intense, mostly meritocratic sorting process, granting opportunities and education on the basis of qualifications, intent on funneling the most capable people into the higher rungs of the ladder of professional activities and status.

One question is whether all this laborious sorting of students has been a good thing, overall. Do we get better staffed hospitals, better filled jobs throughout the economic system by virtue of this exquisitely and remorselessly selective weeding system? Yes we do, perhaps at the cost of some social serendipity, of finding CEO material in the mailroom, and the like.

But the deeper question is whether all this selection has been good for our society at large. There is answer has to be more guarded. If economic efficiency is the only goal, then sure. But it isn't, and some of our social atomization, and creeping class-ism and despair in the lower rungs of society comes from the intensification of meritocratic selection, which spills over to many other areas of society, directly through income and wealth, and indirectly through many other mechanisms of status, particularly politics. Much of Trump's support comes from people sick of the "elites"- those selected by SAT scores, course grades, and the like to rule over the working class. It is not clear that grubbing for grades and mastering standardized exams have done such a good job at selecting a ruling political class. That class has not done a very good job, and that poor performance has sapped our social solidarity. The crisis is most glaring in the stark cost of losing out- homelessness and destitution- the appalling conditions that are the mirror of billionaires also produced by this Darwinian system.

The problem is that we need areas of our lives that are not plugged into the rat race, for both psychological and sociological reasons. Such areas are increasingly scarce as this new gilded age gobbles up all our social relations under the rubric of the market, paticularly with its newly internet-extended capabilities. Religion has traditionally been a social locus where every one is worth the same- many classes come together to share some profound feelings, and occasionally explicit anti-establishment messages, (though also often a message of exalted status vs some other sect, faith, or unbelievers). But religion is dying, for good reason.

A town meeting

Civic associations and volunteer life have in the US been a frequent antidote to class-ism, with people of all classes coming together to make each others' lives better. But modern transportation has enabled the definitive sorting of classes by socioeconomic level, rendering civic activity, even when it occurs, poor at social mixing. No longer does a geographic community have to include those of all professions and walks of life to be viable. We can have lilly-white suburbs and gated communities, and have any tradespeople and retail employees commute in from far away. That is a problem, one caused ultimately by fossil fuels and the freedom that they bring. The civic sector has also been invaded by an army of vanity foundations sponsored by the rich- a patronizing and typically futile approach to social betterment. Volunteerism has also been sapped by lack of time and money, as employees throughout the economic system are lashed ever more tightly to their jobs, stores kept open at all hours, and wages for most stagnate. Unions are another form of civic association that have withered.

All this has frayed the local civic and social connections, which are the ultimate safety net and source of civic solidarity. While Republicans bray about how terrible government is at replacing these services with top-down programs, (with some justification), they have at the same time carried out a decades-long battle to weaken both government and civic life, leaving a smoldering ruin in the name of a new feudal overlordship of the "job-creators"- the business class. That is the ultimate problem with meritocracy, and while appreciating its role in spreading social justice in the distribution of educational and professional opportunity, (a promise that is far from fully realized), we need to realize its cost in other areas of our national culture, and work to restore community diversity, community institutions, and community solidarity.

Where love rules, there is no will to power; where power predominates, there love is lacking. The one is the shadow of the other. – Carl Jung

Saturday, September 14, 2019

Goal: One Billion

The Earth can't take 10 billion people. 

We have environmental and cultural problems at all scales, from the local to the global. From water shortages, drought, plastic pollution, overfishing, and species extinction, to global warming, authoritarianism, social fraying, anti-immigrant fervor, and gridlocked traffic and real estate markets. There is a common thread, which is that there are way too many people. We have (at least in some places) remediated some of the worst practices we used to take for granted, like killing whales for oil, using explosives for fishing, or dumping chemical wastes into rivers and soils. But there are are few practical ways to remediate our carbon emissions, water scarcity, or need for vast farmlands. We need to take a long look in the mirror and realize that the Earth can't take it, and we are the problem- the shear number of us.

Consider the range of problems like housing costs gone wild, traffic choked to a standstill, rising education costs and competition, and political gridlock. Are these related to overpopulation as well? I think very much so. Real estate is self-explanatory. As the old saying goes, they aren't making more land. Even while plenty of land is worthless, the need for people to live near other people means that we need to live together in what have become increasingly choked megalopolises. While rich metropolises like San Francisco and London struggle with traffic congestion and decaying public services, poorer ones like Lagos, Sao Paulo, and Mumbai had few services to start with and attract ever widening circles of destitute slums.

Lagos

A deeper issue is why our political systems are breaking down as well. Public services are decaying for a reason, which is that solidarity has weakened. Half of the US electorate has checked out of communal projects of good governance, rational and positive foreign policy, and caring for others. After two centuries of extraordinary growth, first sponsored especially in the US by a marvelously depopulated New World, and then again by bounding over technological frontiers such as fossil fuels, electricity, and the green revolution, we seem to have reached a general growth plateau, (barring development of robots who will do everything for us, but burn ever more fuel in doing so), and the expansive mood has ground to a halt. One consequence is that the elites of the culture, principally the rich, no longer subscribe to an egalitarian ethic. Growth can not be relied on to lift all boats, rather it is now every class for itself. Which class wins, when money runs politics and the media, and has been turned into "free speech" by the supreme court, is obvious.

It used to be, in the "population bomb" 1970's, that we thought that famine would be the limit on population. But it turns out that, given enough fossil fuel inputs for fertilizer production, machinery, and clearing new arable land, plus a green revolution in crop breeding, food is not the limiting factor. It is a thousand other things that we are doing to the biosphere and to our societies. The tide against immigrants is clearly borne of fear, that the number of the poor who want to flee their wretched conditions is essentially limitless, and thus that prosperous countries, i.e. Europe and the US, can not offer the relatively free immigration conditions they have heretofore. The US gained vast goodwill throughout the world over the last couple of centuries by admitting countless immigrants and playing a central role in many of the technological improvements that have allowed populations to grow everywhere.

But that process seems to have reached an end point. We have picked much of the low-hanging fruit, and have come up against insurmountable barriers. Fusion power has not happened. Space colonization is completely impractical. Even electricity storage is presenting tremendous difficulties, making a large scale switch to renewable electricity virtually impossible. And the biosphere is being degraded every day. We have come up against Malthusian limits that are more subtle than famine, but need to be heeded, lest we relentlessly immiserate ourselves.

There are two general political responses to all this. The Left response is to cooperate as best we can and tighten our belts to fit in a few billion more. Open borders, save the children, conserve water and reduce electricity usage, so that all can have at least a share of whatever resources are left. The Right response is to deny that there are significant ecological limits, cast whatever limits there are in economic terms and compete to take what we can while we can, and devil take the hindmost. Neither response is very forward-looking. One can make the argument that development is the only proven way to reduce demographic growth. Therefore, we should promote development, and bring everyone up to first world standards of resource consumption, which will in turn bring birth rates down to what in Europe and Japanare less than replacement rates. But the Earth can't take that policy either. Global heating is already having dire effects. The biosphere is already decimated and impoverished.

Thus we need an even more impractical, impolitic, and direct strategy, which is to aim to dramatically reduce the human population. A rigorously enforced one-child policy over three generations would get us from the current 7+ billion people to 1 billion, which, I think, given the current technological state, is reasonably sustainable. China did an amazing thing with its one-child policy, nipping in the bud its most significant problem- that of vastly too many people for its capabilities and resources. China is now reaping the rewards of that policy, though it hardly went far enough, and China remains heavily overpopulated and rapacious as it ascends the ladder of development.

If combating climate change is a problem from hell, structurally diffuse and resistant to responsible policy, then population control is far more so. National power is to a great extent dependent on economic and population size. We have for centuries had a mania for growth, embedded in every fiber of our economic policy and national outlook. We are Malthusian to the core, and our major religions are even worse offenders, propagating the most Darwinian of reproduction policies, even while they so ironically decry Darwin's intellectual bequests. No, it is not an easy problem. But at very least, we should not fear declining birth rates as some existential catastrophe and sign of general decline. No, they should be welcomed as the least we can do, and a small part of our path to a sustainable future, for ourselves and for the biosphere that is our home.

  • Jupiter flyby.
  • Accounting for Iraq.
  • What the Kochs and their ilk have wraught.
  • Are the Taliban more trustworthy than Donald Trump?
  • Have richer people have become more handsome?
  • Bonus quote of the week, from "If We Can Keep It", by Michael Tomask.
We are in trouble. Our political culture is broken, but it is not broken for the reasons you often read that it's broken- because Washington is 'dysfunctional' or because politicians have no 'will'. No. It's broken because some people broke it. It was broken by the people who pushed the economic theory on the rest of us that has driven trillions of dollars that were once in middle-class people's pockets to the comparative few at the very top. Who refused to invest in the country anymore. Who will not even negotiate real investment. Who have been telling us for years that the market will take care of all our needs, while the market has in fact left thousands of towns and communities strafed and full of people addicted to drugs- the drugs, by the way, tht the same free market is pumping out in vastly greater quantities, and for vastly greater profits, than it did twenty years ago. And who have built up a parallel media universe in which any of these commonsense assertions are dismissed as socialist, and in which anyone who doesn't endorse the thesis of Donald Trump's greatness is denounced as un-American. 
They broke it. They broke it to gain power and to remake society in a way that was less communitarian, explicitly less equal, than the society we were building from 1945 to 1980. And- let me not forget this part- less democratic. I wrote earlier of Donald Trump's contempt for our institutions, our processes, put another way, for the democratic allocation of power. Many observers (me included, sometimes) have wondered why this didn't make Republicans recoil. The typical explanation has to do with fear of his base, but I've come to believe that the simplest explanation is the best: They didn't recoil because they're not especially bothered. They find him embarrassing at times, and they disagree with him here and there, but his demagogic approach doesn't really trouble them on the whole. They- not all of them, but certainly a critical mass of elected officials, operatives, and billionaires- no longer want to compete with and merely defeat liberalism on a level democratic playing field. They want to destroy it. This is why they do things like aggressive gerrymandering, the voter suppression laws, the attemt to change the way we elect senators, the blocking of Merrick Garland- all of which preceded Trump. They want to change the rules so they they never lose. And if destroying liberalism requires breaking the system- as it surely does- then so be it as far as they're concerned.

Saturday, July 6, 2019

En Garde, Libtard!

Review of "Nervous States: Democracy and the Decline of Reason", by William Davies

Davies' book offers a deep historical analysis of our current predicament- a post-truth culture of all-out political warfare. Unfortunately, it turns out to be rather disorganized and digressive, despite offering many interesting ideas and pithy mottos. So the reviewer's job becomes one of reconstructing what the argument should have been were it better-edited and organized. A brief outline is that Davies believes that the enlightenment (exemplified by the philosophies of Hobbes and Descartes- no mention of Locke, oddly) generated the idea that a peaceful civic space was possible if the state does two things- monopolizes all violent power, and generates institutions of fact-finding to put policy and political debate on a rational footing, thus founding what we know today as expert/elite-driven technocracy.

Fast-forward to today, and our political space has degenerated back into a semblence of warfare, where information is weaponized, our new internet media is more hospitable to trolls than thought, and political debates revolve around put-downs and insults. The authority of the technocrats has been seeping away for decades, and the natives are restless.

On the whole, I think the philosophical superstructure of this argument is largely trash. Technocracy was hardly heard of till the 50's, when the post-war status of physicists and scientists in general was at a high tide. Civility has waxed and waned dramatically over the decades and centuries, and seems to have more to do with the tides of war and national cohesion than with anyone's philosophy, however influential such ideas can be in the long term in a background way. And Davies' prescription at the end is for the elites to enter the culture and political war at full throttle, since no one cares about their facts, objectivity, or authority any more. That hardly seems to be a philosophically grounded, coherent, or long-term answer to the problem. One can say, however, that the composition of the governing elites has changed over time, from the theologians and aristocrats who are fossilized in the British House of Lords, to the more democratic-minded aristocrats of the enlightenment and American/French revolutions, to the scholarly products of the École normale supérieure, Harvard, etc. who tend to rule the roost, and especially the civil service, today.
"It is scarcely any surprise that politicians, businesses, and civil society actors would want to exploit some of the rhetorical magic of numbers for their own purposes, playing consultants to produce statistics to suit thier interests. ... So much trust has been placed in numbers tht anyone wishing to be trusted (for good reasons or ill inevitably cloaks themselves in a veneer of mathematical reason."

Anyhow, what are some other facets that Davies brings out? One is the varying nature of knowledge as seen by business people, military people, and scholars. While the latter laboriously pile factlet on factlet to create an enduring, public edifice of explicit knowledge, the former operate by the seat of their pants to integrate partial knowledge of the moment for effective action. The former value secrecy and intuition and feelings (especially the anlysis of the feelings of others, competitors, and audiences), while the latter try their best to block feelings from their scholarship, keeping it clean of partisanship and bias.

These are fundamentally different approaches to the world, yet our elite government institutions are largely modeled on scholarship- the painstaking assembly of facts and stakeholders, etc. to come up with well-vetted policy. Again, this is hardly a new distinction however. Davies makes a case that romanticism / nationalism / military thinking crept into the European political systems after the French Revolution, which so dramatically mobilized the populace of France to generate an unprecedented military machine. What were once two distinct things- civil life and military life, gradually became merged into the total war and military-industrial complexes of the current century. And this led to the information-as-warfare situation that we find ourselves in today, courtesy of that DARPA project.. the internet. All I can say is ... no- there is something else going on. We have had a partisan, even warring, press since the founding, and a yellow press, scandals, bickering, and many other media problems.
"As for so many other insurgents, the objective of the troll is not to gain power but to inflict pain. Rather than as a means of representation or reason, words become instruments of violence, which seek out human weakness then exploit it. Libertarians might argue that emotional harm is not 'violence', but this is contradicted by the behavior of trolls, who pursure emotional harm with a militaristic and sadistic relish."
"An alternative perspective on financial securitization and Facebook is that they are further cases of 'weaponization' of everyday institutions and promises. They exploit and weaken norms of trust, without building adequate replacements. Debt, housing, friendship and democracy have been around for thousands of years; the contribution of the financial sector or Silicon Valley over the past thirty years has been to find ways of manipulating and destabilizing them, so that society no longer feels secure. Nothing permanent is constructed by the invention of mortgage-backed securities or Facebook, but a great deal is damaged."

Where Davies gets a little warmer is in a direct indictment of the US and European elites. The most topical and telling example is of US illegal immigration. For decades, the two parties have been happy to encourage immigration, though for different reasons. The Republicans, beholden to business, want cheap workers. So they work to keep illegal immigrants illegal, which empowers businesses against them and makes possible a high-class life for the top end of town, staffed by gardeners, cooks, nannies, ethnic restaurants, and so forth, at bargain prices. Elite Democrats share in these benefits, and additionally get the votes (generally) of those immigrants who manage to become citizens, by way of being marginally more sympathetic to them. Who loses? Workers do. Illegal immigration has held down wages for decades, and enabled whole industries, particularly agriculture, to operate at well below a decent wage scale. Or more to the point, a wage scale that accurately reflects the domestic legal labor market.
".. the conflict between metropolitan and rural values was heightened, adding economic inequality to a set of existing moral controversies. Another way in which this split appears is in terms of graduates vs nongraduates. This conflict has been a feature of American politics since the 1960's, and now more or less determines the shape of the electoral map, with Democrats winning coastal regions, big cities, and university towns, and Republicans winning more or less everywhere else."

In this case the Democratic elites in particular have adopted an agenda that directly hurts its original constituents- working class citizens. The same can be said of NAFTA and of globalization in general. The benefits have flowed up to the top, while the lower classes have been sold down the river. All this is understandable from a theoretical economic perspective, which is a comfort zone for the elites, as total economic growth inarguably goes up with most forms of free trade. China has paticularly decimated working class communities across the country, taking whole industries and supply chains abroad. Davies argues at length that the abstract statistics typically provided and consumed by the elites, such as GDP and unemployment, have, perhaps by design, failed to accurately portray the conditions of much of the population, which is increasingly ignored, flown-over, under-employed, in economic decline, and despondent. And these are the conditions that lead to a sleazy, clownish demagogue, especially when the other candidate in the election exemplifies almost precisely the over-educated and entitled elitism that has lost so much credibility, mostly by being slowly coopted by the rotten values of their purported adversaries.


Another issue is general bureaucratic sclerosis. Nothing can be done or built at any reasonable cost, because between the unionization of public workers, their corrupt participation in elections, and the general growth of legal, environmental, and other liabilities, the capacity of public management to operate has been cut to pieces. Exhibit A is the California high speed train, which is an utter managment fiasco. Each of these developments has been well-intentioned, but together, they result in a system where infrastructure to accommodate all the immigration that Democrats in particular are sympathetic to never gets built, we end up with gridlock, and citizens revolt against mandates to alter zoning to pack more people into the existing, crumbing, infrastructure.

And yet another issue is the romanticisation of nature. Where farmers and the agricultural industry grapple with and against nature on a daily basis, the educated elites take increasingly moralistic and strident stands- against climate change, against habitat loss, against species loss, against cruelty, against meat, etc. Again, all these movements are extremely well-intentioned, even momentously important. But the disconnect between rural and coastal could not be more stark, leading to the kind of resentment politics that we are living through.

In the wake of World War 2, the elites had demonstrated they could not only resolve a depression, manage and win a vast global war, but create the unimaginable ... the atomic bomb. They had maximum credibility, which has been eroding ever since. It was these elites that Trump and the Republicans ran against, apparently unaware that they were in the elite as well, only with the difference that while Democrats seek generally to make our state and civic institutions work better and more fairly, Republicans want to make them work less fairly, or failing that, destroy them entirely.

There are natural cycles, perhaps, of war and peace, of corruption and reform, of division and civility. But over our long history, this administration is surely the lowest point of administrative competence and moral stature. We won't get out of it by hoping for more civility, or that someone would turn off the internet. This book does offer some glimmers of a solution, not in its last chapters, but in its indictment of the Democratic elites in particular. Voters yearn for truth. Trump gave them a breakthrough of sorts, identifying immigration as a (partially valid) source of resentment, and identifying de-industrialization as another one. Both those horses are mostly out of the barn, as is surely / hopefully the fate of the coal industry as well. Trump's policies on all these fronts have been anachronistic, if not cruel, farces.

Real policy and truthful communication on these fronts is what the Democrats are groping for. They need to take workers seriously, not only as a token thread in the rainbow tapestry, but as a core and directing constituency. Warmed-over apparachiks like Joe Biden hearken back to when Democrats were slightly less elitist, thereby generating some support from older cohorts, when compared to the technocratic darlings Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigeig. But the point is.. who will articulate and serve the interests of the working class with serious and effective policy solutions? Who will lay aside the identity politics, the various liberal hobbyhorses, and focus on the demographics that will win the next election, not just through demagoguery, but by facing facts with future-directed and constituent-directed policy? The energy is rightly in the progressive end of the party, with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, whose policies and passion speak to righting the tide of inequality with a far-reaching program of reform and reversal of decades of right wing policies, instead of being coopted by them or compromising with them.
"War provides recognition, explanation, and commemoration of pain, of the sort that policy experts and professional politicians seem unable to provide. One of the curiosities of nationalism is that, despite appeals to famous battles and heroes, it is most often kindled by moments of defeat and suffering, which shape identity more forcefully than victories. For romantic patriots, Britain was never more truly British than when fleeing Dunkirk or enduring the Blitz. The common identity of the American South is forged out of the experience, then memory, of defeat in civil war, as mourned by the Lost Cause movement of thinkers and writers. ... The major achievement of scientific expertise and modern government, dating back to the mid-seventeenth century, was to establish a basis for civic interaction, from which violence was eliminated. The boundary between war and peace was unambiguous, and a public respect for facts reinforced this. There are various forces at large in the twenty-first century that test this boundary, including technologies and military strategies that blur the distinction between war and peace. But there are also emotional reasons why that line is becoming blurred. Part of the appeal of war, at least as an idea, is that- unlike civil society designed by the liked of Hobbes, it represents a form of politics where feelings really matter."

Davies points out that the most salient emotion in politics is loss of control. Such losses are destabilizing and can lead to the resentments that can be stoked by demagogues, and result in war, political or military. The Republican Southern strategy was and is built around revanchism against civil rights, among much else. In personal terms, such loss can lead to drug abuse, which gives at least the illusion of control and comfort. Workers have been dramatically disempowered over the last several decades, mostly through the far-reaching ideology of the Republican party. Yet when asked to vote, they voted for a Republican to fix it, apparently because he effectively touched an emotional feeling of hope and resentment, and then offered a pack of lies as solutions. Democrats are surely better, but they have to fess up to their failings, and dedicate themselves to a thorough-going program of reform, reversing decades of their own corruption and anti-worker policies. Will all this be twisted by the right wing media into pretzels of illogic and hate? Yes. But no one can argue that the campaign we are going through right now does not give Democrats the opportunity to make their own case on a virtually infinite number of channels and platforms. It is up to us.

  • The search for social peace has infinitely deep roots.
  • Why do women do it?
  • And now for something different.. a pro-Trump view.
  • Labor should be getting far more money.
  • Better automatic stabilizers are an obvious way to take a load off the central bank.
  • Threats don't work if you are a clown.
  • Impeachment can't come soon enough.
  • The Taliban is doing very well in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, every time we meet with the Taliban, we degrade the capacity and legitimacy of the Afghan government.
  • Arctic ice loss is going to flip the switch.
  • China is the worst.