Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts

Saturday, January 6, 2024

Damned if You do, Damned if You Don't

The Cherokee trail of tears, and the Palestinian conundrum.

History is a long and sad tale of conflict, interspersed with better times when people can put their animosities aside. Just as economics deals in scarcity and its various solutions, history likewise turns on our inevitable drive towards overpopulation, with resulting scarcity and conflict. Occasionally, special technological, spiritual, organizational achievements- or catastrophes- may allow periods of free population growth with its attendant bouyant mood of generosity. But more commonly, groups of people covet each other's resources and plot ways to get them. This was one of the lessons of Malthus and Darwin, who addressed the deeper causes of what we see as historical events.

The "New World" provided Europeans with an unprecedented release for their excess populations, especially the malcontented, the desperate, and the ambitious. They rhapsodized about the "virgin" lands that lay open, generally dismissing the numerous and well-organized natives present all over these lands, as "savages", occupying a lower technological and theological level of existence. There were plenty of rationalizations put forth, like Christianizing the natives, or "civilizing" them. But the hypocrisy of these formulations becomes clear when you consider the fate of the Cherokees, one of the "five civilized tribes". 

By the early 1800's, a couple of centuries of contact had already gone under the bridge, (as narrated by Pekka Hämäläinen in "Indigenous continent"), and native Americans were all integrated to various degrees in trading networks that brought them European goods like guns, pots, knives, and novel practices like horse riding. The Cherokees, occupying the lower Appalachians and piedmont between what is now Georgia and Alabama, were more integrated than most, adopting European farming, living, schooling, and governing practices. They even owned African American slaves, and wrote themselves a US-modeled constitution in 1827, in the script devised the scholar Sequoya.

Did this "progress" toward assimilation with the European culture help them? Far from! Their excellence in farming, literacy, and government raised fears of competition in the white colonists, and the Georgia state government lobbied relentlessly for their removal. Andrew Jackson finally obliged. He pressured the Cherokees to re-open their status as a settled nation, devised a removal treaty with a minority party, and then sent all the Cherokees in the region (about 16,000) off on the Trail of Tears, to the barren lands of Oklahoma. These Cherokees lost roughly a quarter of their population along the way, in a brutal winter. Compare this with the partition of India, where about twelve percent of the refugees are thought to have perished, out of roughly 16 million total.

A small part of the annals of ethnic cleansing, US edition. Needless to say, the "Indian territory" ended up a lot smaller than originally promised.
 

Georgia was thus ethnically cleansed, and does not seem to experience a great deal of regret about it. The logic of power is quite simple- the winner gets the land and spoils. The loser is lucky to not be killed. That the Europeans were significantly more powerful than their native antagonists doesn't change the logic, though it might appeal to our empathy and nostalgia in retrospect. The Cherokees and other Native Americans might have been accepted into US society. They might have been given one or two states for their sovereign governments, as the Mormons managed. There were a lot of possibilities that might have made us a more interesting and diverse nation. But at the same time, most Native Americans participated fully in the politics of power, terrorizing each other, making slaves of each other, and killing each other. They were not innocents. So the fact that they came up against a stronger power was hardly a novelty, though in this case that power was blundering and cruel, shared very few of their cultural coordinates, and was highly hypocritical about its own.

All this comes to mind when viewing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel won the major Middle East wars that so dramatically emasculated the Palestinians, first in the civil war that left Jordan and Egypt in charge of the Palestinian areas, then in the 1967 war that left all these areas in Israeli hands. But what to do with them? On founding, Israel was a liberal, New Testament kind of country, with humanist values and lefty kibbutzim. The then-recent Holocaust also caused a bit of hesitance when it came to either killing or exiling the losing Palestinians. Indeed, given that its neighbors Jordan and Egypt lost these wars, it would have made some sense at that time to deport all the Palestinians, of which there were about one to two million. But rather than do that, or make a firm border, Israel immediately started encroaching into Palestinian territory with security areas and "settlements", and has set up an ever more elaborate, though selectively porous and self-serving, security and boundary system.

Both sides have a schizophrenic reaction to the other. On the Palestinian side, the psychology of losing has meant quietism and acquiescence by some, but resentment and militantcy by others. Both lead to a spiral of worse treatment, the weakness of the former inviting abuse, and the desperate depredations of the latter inciting revenge, "security" measures, and tighter occupation. The provocations by each side are unendurable, and thus the situation deteriorates. Yet, in the end, Israel has all the power and the responsibility to come up with a long term solution. Over the decades, Israel has morphed from its founding ethos into something much more conservative and Old Testament, less beholden to the humanisitic ideals of the post-WW2 period. The wanton killing, starvation, and collective punishment of Gaza makes visible this moral breakdown.

The Palestinians can't win either way, either through Hamas's implacable hatred and impotent attacks, nor through the acquiescence of the Palestinian National Authority, which, in thanks for its good behavior, has received the creeping expansion of Israeli "settlements" on its land. These now take up, according to a detailed map, about 1/3 to 1/2 of the land of the West Bank. Overall, the options are: 1) to expel the Palestinians outright, which appears to be, for Gaza at least, where Israeli policy is heading, (made more ironic by the realization by historians that the Biblical Exodus never actually took place), or 2) to continue to muddle along in a torturous occupation with creeping dispossession, or 3) to grant Palestine some kind of autonomy and statehood. Assimilation, (4), long dreamt of by some, seems impossible for a state that is fundamentally an ethnic (or theological) state, and whose whole raison d'etre is ethnic separation, not to even mention the preferences of the Palestinians. Though perhaps assimiliation without voting rights, in sort of semi-slavery or apartheid, is something the Israelies would be attracted to? Perhaps insignia will need to be worn by all Palestinians, sewn to their clothing?

Map of the West Bank of the Jordan, color coded by Palestinian marginal control in brown, and settler/Israeli control in red.

What should happen? Indigenous Americans were infected, decimated, hunted down, translocated, re-educated, and confined to a small and very remote system of reservations. Hopefully we have have progressed a little since then, as a largely European civilization, which is putatively shared by Israel. Thus the only way forward, as is recognized by everyone outside Israel, is the two-state solution, including a re-organization of the Palestinian territories into a final, clearly demarked, and contiguous state. Israel's current political system will never get there. But we can help the process along in a few ways.

First, it is disappointing to see our current administration shipping arms to Israel at a furious pace, only to see them used to kill thousands of innocent, if highly resentful, civilians. Israel has plenty of its own money to buy whatever it needs elsewhere. We need to put some limitations on our military and other aid relationships, to motivate change. (Though that raises the question of Israel's increasingly cozy relationship with Russia). Second, we should recognize Palestine as a state, and bring forward its integration into the international system. This will not resolve its borders or myriad security and territory issues viz Israel, but it would helpfully motivate things in that direction. Israel has constantly cried wolf about the lack of a credible partner to negotiate with, but that is irrelevant. Israel is perfectly capable of building the walls it needs to keep Palestinians at bay. But then it wants pliant workers as well, and a peaceful neighbor, security viz Jordan and Egypt, territorial encroachments, and many other things that are either destructive, or need to be negotiated. 

By far the most constructive thing that could be done is to freeze and re-organize the Jewish settlements and other periphernalia that have metastasized all over the West Bank. There is no future without a decent and fair solution in territory, which is the third big thing we need to press- our own detailed territorial plan for Palestine. For one thing, Israel could easily vacate the whole corridor / valley facing Jordan. That would give a consolidated Palestine a working border with a country that is now peaceful, quite well run, and friendly to both sides. There are countless possible maps. We just need to decide on one that is reasonably fair and force it on both sides, which are each, still after all these years, apparently unwilling to imagine a true peace. This means principally forcing it on Israel, which has been the dominant and recalcitrant party the entire time.

The Cherokees are now one of the largest indigenous populations in the US, at roughly a quarter million, with their own territory of about seven thousand square miles in Oklahoma. They have internal and partial sovereignty, which means that they deal with their own affairs on a somewhat independent basis, but otherwise are largely subject to most laws of the enclosing governments. The Cherokees could easily have been assimilated into the US. Only racism stood in the way, in a mindset that had long descended into a blind and adversarial disregard of all native Americans as "others", (the irony!), competitive with and less than, the newly arrived immigrants. We could have done much better, and one would like to think that, a hundred or a hundred and fifty years on, we would have.

In the end, the West (read as European civilization, as developed out of the ashes of World War 2) is either for or against wars of aggression, ethnic cleansing, apartheid, and human rights. Israel has won its wars, but never faced up to its responsibilities to the conquered Palestinians, and has tried to have it both ways, to be viewed by the world as a modern, enlightened state, even as it occupies and slowly strangles the people it defeated decades ago. 


  • Slovenly strategic thinking. But really, visionless long-term politics.
  • One Gazan speaks.
  • Settler colonialism.
  • Who's the victim?
  • Shades of Scientology ... the murky networks of the deep evangelical state.
  • In California, solar still makes sense.

Saturday, March 5, 2022

Toxic Nostalgia

Making Russia great again.

What is it about the past? Even though we are condemned to live in the future, we can't stop fantasizing and fetishizing the past, and wanting to go back. On the gentle side, Proust wrote nothing but loving remembrances of his (sometimes mortifying) past, trying to evoke its moods, textures, smells, and feelings. But why does nostalgia so often curdle into bloodlust and terror? For that is where the Russian autocrat is going with his nostalgia for the Soviet era when Stalin ruled even more autocratically over a well-cowed populace extending from Hungary to the Pacific. Ah, those were the days!

It isn't just our current crisis- far from. The Trumpists want to make America great... again. The Muslim jihadists are bent on reproducing the pre-eminent dominance of Islam of 1300 years ago. The Serbs hearken back to their own grand empire of 700 years ago. Shia muslims fetishize their losses and in a theology of repair and redemption. Jews have both bemoaned their losses of their great kingdoms two millennia ago, and militantly sought their promised land back. And fundamentalists of all stripes yearn to get back to the basic tenets of their faith- the pure origins of incendiary belief and miracles.

It all seems a little over-determined, as though the operative emotion isn't nostalgia exactly, but powerlust, seizing on whatever materials come to hand to say that we as some tribe or culture are better and deserve better than we've got. While the future remains ever shrouded, the past is at least accessible, if also rather protean in the hands of dedicated propagandists. In Russia's case, not only did Stalin help start World War 2 by co-invading Poland, but the prior holocaust/famine in Ukraine, followed by the transplacement of millions of Russians into Ukraine.. well, that all makes this current bout of nostalgia far from sympathetic, however well-twisted it has been for internal consumption. Of course the propaganda and the emotion is mostly instrumental, in a desperate bid to fend off the appearance of happy, secure, and prosperous democracies on Russia's borders, which is the real danger at hand, to Putin and his system.

In remembrance of Russia's great patriotic war, which it helped start.

Yet, such nostalgia is strongly culturally binding, for better or worse. Rising states may have short histories and short memories, resented as the nouveau-rich on the world stage. They are not "as good" in some essential way as those whose greatness has passed into the realm of nostalgia. Worth is thus not in the doing but in some ineffible essentialist (read nationalist/tribal) way that is incredibly resistant to both reason and empathy. It is analogous to "nobility" in the class structure within most societies. In the US, we seem on the cusp (or past it) of our time atop the world stage. Do we then face hundreds of years of regret, comforting ourselves with tales of greatness and seething resentment?

With echos of a deeper past.

  • Could the West have been smarter; more generous?
  • Apparently, we are all going to die.
  • Tires are bad.

Saturday, January 6, 2018

A Moronic Foreign Policy

Trump accomplishes the opposite of what he claims. But Putin would be so proud!

Is America great again? Apparently, we are getting there very fast, even faster than orginally envisioned, according to our President, who is also a very stable genius, with an extremely large button. But for some reason we are also a world-wide laughing stock, headed by a moron whose erratic spleen is vented daily on Twitter, who can't read more than a few sentences at a time, who lies compulsively, and whose wanna-be mobster management style is pathetically at odds with any trace of professionalism. His vision of greatness seems to be letting corporations and the rich (such as himself) run roughshod over everyone else. How long that will play with his base is anyone's guess. But the worst consequences of Presidential intelligence and temperament (or lack thereof) are, as usual, on foreign policy.

The US has been leader of the free world, and the industrialized world, since World War 2, and arguably since World War 1. We have been the indispensible nation, the leading economy, and the leading culture of the 20th century. We faught a drawn-out and bitter Cold War with the main ideological and geopolitical adversary, communism, which ended with the latter's complete implosion. Russia has reconstituted itself along Tzarist lines, while China has reconstituted itself along similar capitalist/authoritarian lines, but without the personality cult at the top, at least until the current president, Xi Jinping. These former communist countries have learned from each other, and from the West, to arrive at their current blend of corrupt, Orwellian one-party rule, combined with substantial personal and business freedoms. And China is growing at a clip that will make it the largest economy and leading world power in a matter of decades, if not years.


This is the current competition that we face as a governing model- one that is attractive to smaller countries like Pakistan, the Phillipines, Iran, and many others. It is a time of flux, and our leadership, while not as central as in the fight against communism, remains critical if real democracy is to supplant fake democracy. Yet our current administration is pedaling as fast as it can in the wrong direction. It is itself beholden to Russia for its existence, and the President conveys his admiration for Vladimir Putin as often as possible. It embodies precisely the same style of corrupt, authoritarian, nepotistic, and predatory tendencies as the countries we least want to emulate.

In foreign policy, this administration has been sending a lot of mixed signals. This on its face is bad foreign policy, and contributes directly to a decline in global leadership. But it is understandable, as a war plays out within the White House between the President's terrible instincts, and the obvious interests of the US as represented by his hand-picked military policy staff, by a withering State Department, and by whatever other sane people remain. So we have been making enemies on a daily basis. The President promised that he would solve the Middle East, and the Israeli-Palestinian problem. Who knew that meant giving Israel whatever it wants, and giving the finger to any notion of a peace process? The pissing match with North Korea has been both futile and contemptible. We have relinquished whatever slight claim we ever had to leadership on global warming. The sudden attack on Pakistan, while eminently understandable, was also unnecessarily bombastic. The attacks on NATO and Europe, though since reeled back by his handlers, have been very damaging to the notion that the US has anything futher to do with the future of Europe. Mexico? Don't even ask.

In sum, we are retreating from greatness on a daily basis, becoming a smaller, petulent actor on the world stage, at a time when our values are under the most subtle attack, and when competing models of governance have found new footing after the communist debacle. We seem to be rushing to join them, rather than standing for enlightened values of truth, decency, and equality.


  • A spirited foreign policy debate between a trump-is-not-so-bad person, and a we-are-going-to-hell person.
  • Trump is an asset ... to someone.
  • We have now taken the measure of our man.
  • Opposite of helping the working class.
  • Immigration is another part of the class war.
  • Restore Net Neutrality- join a vpn system.
  • How bad is facebook?

Saturday, December 9, 2017

Native American Cleansing, Army-Style

Review of Keith Murray's "The Modocs and Their War".

It was a brief national sensation during the Grant administration, but now a forgotten episode in the ethnic cleansing of the West. A tiny band of obscure Native Americans in Northern California resisted the US army for a year, engaging over ten times their own numbers, turning whole army units into demoralized fleeing cowards. A splinter group of the Modocs, numbering about 65 fighting men, were induced to go to a reservation in Oregon around 1865, but naturally found the experience unappealing, and decided to return to their native lands. With the US distracted by the Civil War and its aftermath, they were left alone for several years, while the settlers that were encroaching on their lands threw up increasingly bitter complaints.

Lava beds at Tule lake

One feature of these native lands, around Tule lake on the border with Oregon, are lava beds with very rugged topography. While barren, these also make excellent natural fortifications. The Modoc band, with their leader Captain Jack, made thorough use of them to hold off a determined Army attack on January 16 and 17, 1873, inflicting about 50 casualties while suffering none of their own. In fact, the Modocs throughout this episode ran circles around their enemies in tactics, logistics, scouting, and intelligence. In contrast, the Army of the West was a notorious home to cast-offs and hirelings, with little motivation and very great expense. There was an actual F-Troop involved, bringing quite appropriately to mind the old TV show about Western Army incompetence and corruption.

Eventually, the Army brought in hundreds of soldiers, plus units of friendly Native Americans, and hunted the Modocs down after they had thoroughly exhausted their supplies, not to mention their shaman's spiritual powers. Four of the leaders were hanged, and the rest shipped off by train to a reservation in Oklahoma, where the Modoc nation survives, barely.

I highly recommend this book, which dates from 1959. It is painstakingly researched, clearly told, and well-, sometimes sardonically, written. Murray reflects on the failings of the US Army, when faced with highly motivated and guerrilla resistance. He reflects:
"When the student of the Indian troubles turns from men or events to generalizations, he is struck with the obvious fact that the most serious aspect of the Modoc War was that the government had clearly learned nothing from its experience. Even while Captain Jack was awaiting execution at Fort Klamath, the civil government of Oregon expressed concern over the actions of certain Nez Percés of Joseph's band living in the Wallowa Valley of northeastern Oregon" .. which then led to similar mistreatment, broken promises, incompetence, and a long and tragic war of resistance.

The portents for Vietnam are alarming here, not to mention the displacement and mistreatment of the Palestinians. But to stick to domestic affairs, the overall dynamic was one of moral turpitude and greed on a national level, which the Army was put in a hopeless position to manage and mitigate. While the (Northern) US is justly proud of its moral position in the Civil War, its position towards Native Americans was one of ethnic cleansing, not to say extermination. The press of manifest destiny and the homesteading / settler movement encroached relentlessly on Native American lands. Treaty after treaty was signed, then ignored or reneged, boxing Native Americans into smaller and smaller reservations. We may call them concentration camps. They are on the worst possible land, in the most remote corners of the nation.
Territories of the Nez Percé. Green shows original treaty lands,  while the inner orange shows what they are left with today.

The irony is that only a few decades after the last of the Indian wars, the country woke up, in some very small degree, to its destruction and rapine of its natural inheritance and started establishing national parks to preserve a few of the most beautiful areas. If the Native Americans had been treated with decency and fairness, with large national lands that were protected from the depredations of settlers, we would today have a much more significant system of wild areas, in addition to preserving many more Native Americans and their diverse cultures. We can only be thankful that the freed slaves were not likewise driven onto barren reservations in the West, over trails of tears.


  • The lies are the message, and the power.
  • The tax bill is an impeachable offense.
  • Fraud is now OK.
  • Medicare is next.
  • Is collusion with Israel worse than with Russia?
  • Cable, unbound.

Saturday, May 7, 2016

A Son of Hamas Turns His Back

Review of the documentary, the Green Prince. Spoiler alert.

In one of the more bizarre twists of the Palestinian drama, the son of a Hamas leader turned into a tireless worker for the Shin Bet from about 1997 to  2007. Now he lives in the US, at undisclosed locations. This film is essentially an memoir of this story, with two people talking to the camera, Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son, and Gonen Ben Yitzhak, his Israeli intellegence handler.

The format was oddly compelling, because the people are compelling- intelligent and dedicated. But to what? Yousef was raised in the West Bank, the eldest son in a leading family, and became his father's right hand. His father was one of the main people you would hear screaming on the news, preaching publicly about the evils of Israel, the righteousness of Islam and the Intifada, and the need for Hamas to run things in the West Bank as well as Gaza. As Hamas goes, he was not the most extreme, but nor was he a member of the Palestinian Authority- the Palestinian patsies.

Father HassanYousef at a Hamas Rally.

So turning to the Shin Bet was unthinkable in tribal terms. But when Yousef had his first experience in prison, courtesy of an Israeli checkpoint where he was found with some guns, he had a chance to compare tribes. While the Israelis were harsh, they had limits and operated under some kind of lawful system.

The Hamas cell in the prison, however, was brutally sadistic. Yousef describes the killing of scores of putative spies and informants in horrific fashion, with scant evidence. For an idealistic youth, it presented a problem, especially in contrast to the idealized version of the Palestinian cause that he had grown up with. Where at first he didn't take the offer from the Shin Bet seriously, now he had second thoughts. What if his idealism was more about non-violence, peace, and saving lives than about tribal competition?

There follows a lengthy career relaying information from his position at the center of Hamas with his father to the core of Shin Bet, preventing attacks, preventing assassinations, and also, in essence, dictating his father's fate. A central conundrum of intelligence work like this is how to use the informant's information without giving away his or her identity. To maintain Yousef's cover for a decade bespeaks very careful work on all sides.

But the larger issue remains untouched. While Yousef comes off as heroic and idealistic, the Israeli occupation of the West Bank is no more justified by Israel's lawful and partial restraint (or by its relentless stealing of land) than it is by the bottomless resentment and madness of Hamas. Treat people like prisoners and animals, and they often act that way. Moreover, Israel holds total control. They need no "partners" to resolve their doomed and immoral occupation. They only need to get out, and get their settlers out.


  • Muslims are screwing up the Netherlands and Europe generally.
  • Obama and Wall Street. Next showing: Hillary and Wall Street.
  • Do Republicans know anything about growth?
  • The Saudis are hurting.
  • Another business that "cares" for its customers.
  • Another case of pay for performance.
  • Non-competes run amok. "The Treasury Department has found that one in seven Americans earning less than $40,000 a year is subject to a non-compete. This is astonishing, and shows how easily businesses abuse their power over employees."
  • Our medical system is so dysfunctional and complex that error is third leading cause of death.
  • It almost makes you nostalgic for Richard Nixon.
  • Feel the heart, and the Bern.
  • Deflation and below-target monetary growth is a policy mistake.
  • Will extreme Christians let go of politics, at long last?
  • A little brilliant parenting.

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Jesus & reality, part three

Jesus seems to have been real, but the diagnosis would be .. more than a little bonkers. More from Bart Ehrman's "Did Jesus exist?"

In part 1, I considered the theory that Jesus as a historical figure did not exist at all and was made up out of whole cloth, drawing on the rich archetypes, mistold tales, and inflated belief that characterize religion generally. Then in part 2, the opposing view, based on Bart Ehrman's book "Did Jesus exist" was presented, concluding that Jesus really did exist historically, though that is far from implying that all that was later written about him was true. The truth is somewhere in the middle, between complete fabrication and a kernel of truth surrounded by many-colored and textured swaths of fabrication.

The later parts of Ehrman's book touch on the next logical question- if we can use critical historical methods to conclude that Jesus really existed, what else do they allow us to conclude with confidence about him?

The central point of this analysis is that Jesus was a apocalyptic preacher, in the template of John the Baptist. This is a very significant conclusion, since this was a relatively small group in the community of his time. The Jewish community of Palestine had about five noticeable social-theological groupings, as Ehrman and others present it.

First were the Saducees. This was the establishment, ran the temple, and was the economic elite. They collaborated with Rome, and were thus thought traitors by more orthodox Jews, not to mention theologically impure, permissive, corrupt, etc.

Second were the Pharisees. These get plenty of airtime in the gospels, as they were more orthodox than the Saducees, sticklers for Jewish law, kosher, etc.. One might think of them as the hat-and-locks wearing set of the time. Jesus makes lots of points off them, but who killed him? The Saducees, as discussed further below.

Next was the Essenes, the ascetics whose Dead Sea scrolls have provided such trove of knowledge about their time. They were an even more extreme off-shoot of the Pharisees, and might be thought the mystics of the society, segregating themselves in the desert, (for the most dedicated), seeking purity, celibacy, poverty, silence, and community (men only!). They thought the temple, as run by the Saducees, hopelessly corrupt and impure. They certainly didn't have any role in running things, and seem to have strongly messianic hopes.

The last substantial set mentioned by Ehrman are the revolutionaries, (the Zealots), sort of the heirs to the Maccabee tradition. This was a more political outlook, that chafed strongly under the boot of Rome, and thought that the Jewish land was defiled not so much from lack of fidelity to the Levitical and Mosaic laws, as from lack of their own laws, and own government. This class would eventually lead the revolt of the later first century, which prompted the final destruction of the second temple by Rome.

Last is the apocalypticists. Ehrman paints them (as exampled by John the Baptist and Jesus) as quite different from the Essenes, let alone the other groups. But I have to say that the more I read about the Essenes, the closer these two groups appear. While the Essenes were very secretive about their teachings and mostly kept to themselves, the teachings were largely the same- a messianic assumption that someday, each would get what was coming, and that some kind of resurrection would occur. Each were strongly moral and focused on service to others. Each was anti-family, almost pathologically so, preferring to live in like-minded community. So it looks to me as though John the Baptist and Jesus could be thought of as Essenes who took the teaching outwards, to the people at large, and even challenged the Temple and its sponsors directly.

A side-note of interest was their attitude towards morality. The Essenes and apocalypticists were intense moralists and demanders of repentence. But the point was not to make a more pleasant or successful society for us all to live in. No, it was to get right with god before the judgement day, lest you be sent off to everlasting torment in hell. Family values it was not.. the exact opposite, actually. But somehow, subsequent generations have so bowlderized and cherry-picked it that, naturally, it now means that open carry is a Christian commandment, plus whatever else one favors.

This all was kooky enough. But Jesus took it up a notch by predicting that the Kingdom would come soon. In his lifetime, or in that of this hearers. And that his apostles would be the 12 kings, sitting on 12 thrones of the 12 tribes of Israel. This implied that he himself would be the top King.. the new David.

Ehrman makes a highly significant surmise that this plays right into the Judas story. What was his notorious "betrayal"? Jesus couldn't have been hard to find, with an entourage and all, staying in a city he didn't know very well, speaking in the public square to crowds. No, the betrayal had nothing to do with location, but everything to do with theology and politics, since if Jesus gave his disciples a secret teaching that they would inherit the kingdoms and he was to be the messiah and future super-king, then this was something both the Saducees and the Romans might want to hear about.
"Jesus, of course, did not understand his kingship [cause of his conviction and execution] in this way. He was an apocalypticist who believed that God would soon interfere in the course of human affairs and destroy the Romans, and everyone else who opposed him, before setting up his kingdom on earth. And the Jesus would be awarded the throne."
Needless to say, the kingdom never came, Jesus never returned, and never became king (except in our hearts!). Jesus himself was evidently somewhat surprised by the turn of events which left him hanging, so to speak, without god's intervention. His followers never expected him to resurrect, as shown by their complete lack of vigilence over his body, but came up with that story later on to rationalize a commitment and ministry whose rationale had otherwise been buried.

Which gets us to the theme of this post, which is that the historical record, as far as we can make it out with any reliability, indicates that Jesus was real, and was clinically insane. He believed not only in all the normal crack-pot things that were prevalent in his time, and were concentrated within the Essene sect. But on top of that he believed he was the ONE, the future king, and judge of all, etc.. etc.. When we see people in our day calling themselves Jesus Christ, or the postapocalyptic king, who will separate the sheep from the goats after the resurrection, etc.. etc.. we typically call them insane.



"But perhaps even more interesting are the implications for the secular stagnation hypothesis, which holds that we are in a long-run stagnating economy because of inadequate demand. Is it a coincidence that the secular stagnation hypothesis is being revived exactly when income inequality is accelerating? If a higher share of income goes to the wealthiest households who spend very little of it, then perhaps these two trends are closely related."

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Do Bankrupt Companies Dream of Electric Cars?

The future of cars comes into electrifying focus, courtesy of Israel.

A recent NYTimes article outlined a way to make electric cars practical even at modest battery capacity- by replacing the battery as needed on the fly, rather than waiting around to recharge. I found it a very persuasive idea, clarifying the future of the automobile.

There have been several schemes floating around for this future:
  • Renunciation- cars are bad and we should do without them, building transit for short and long distances that is more efficient than single cars.
  • Virtual reality- we eventually plug into a Matrix-like virtual reality where it would make no difference where we are. Telecommuting is only the beginning!
  • Hydrogen- a clean, light-weight fuel to replace gasoline, producing no CO2.
  • Biofuels- gasoline made from recently deceased plants rather than long-deceased plants stored courtesy of earth's geology.
  • Electric vehicles- Electricity is easy to use, and clean, like hydrogen. Whatever the fuel source, all cars are becoming electric cars for efficiency and usability reasons, as shown by today's hybrids, so there is an inherent advantage to also using electricity as the fueling medium.
I think that hydrogen is the most significant loser here, demanding a huge new infrastructure with few significant advantages over the other options. Hydrogen doesn't grow on trees- it has to be made from some other energy source. And on top of that, hydrogen is absurdly difficult to handle and transport safely and cheaply. Indeed, one suspects that hydrogen has been some kind of enormous car industry head-fake plus government boondoggle, based on a prejudice for liquid or quasi-liquid fuels.

Biofuels are impossible as far as large scale use goes, though they will be an important source of specialty chemicals and feedstocks. It is not clear that there are enough recently deceased plants to go around. Making fuel from corn that takes more petroleum to grow than it yields ... that has turned out to be a very bad idea. Shortages of arable land and water are bad enough for growing food- growing fuel is simply not possible or desirable on very large scales.

Renunciation is not going to happen if there is any technological means around it, with the developing world becomming as car-mad as the US (and rightly so, if not for the environmental costs). Virtual reality is sure to be a long-term winner, especially for long-range travel, but bodily travel will still be required for some decades at least. One problem to keep in mind, however, is that making cars themselves is energy and resource-intensive, so some amount of moderation in usage can not but be a good thing, from an environmental perspective.

Electricity, like hydrogen, has to be made somewhere else, and battery storage is not yet at the density of gasoline, making trip range small in current electric cars. It is amazing, really, how slow and painful progress has been in this field, similar to the difficulties in storing large amounts of hydrogen in adsorbed form, or making solar electric panels a few percent more efficient. Electricity storage seems likely to make significantly more progress once market incentives rise, but so far, batteries are not quite ready to substitute for gas tanks, as shown by the price of a truly practical vehicle based on the most advanced technology- the $100,000 Tesla.

The article cited above described an innovative way to deal with the problem of low battery storage capacity, which is to swap out batteries as needed, virtually on the go. A car could make a one-minute pit stop after going 50 miles, get a new battery, and be off in a jiffy with a full charge. While normal use would involve recharging one's own battery after a daily commute, the prospect of being able to swap out batteries on the fly during a long trip is enormously freeing, completing the set of basic conditions needed for an electric car future, even assuming no advances in battery performance at all. Then as battery technology slowly improves, swapping would become less frequent, batteries would weigh less, and the whole system would get increasingly efficient and convenient.

The article profiled the entrepreneur who has started operations in Israel, benefiting from key political support and a dense, small market that would benefit greatly by kicking its oil habit. They are partnering with Renault, which (alone among car companies) has promised to produce an electric vehicle with swap-able batteries. The Israeli company then would set up service stations with stocks of batteries, charging customers at profitable rates over very low cost of the electricity needed.

With peak oil, Middle East entanglement, and Climate change all looming to crisis proportions, transcending fossil fuels can not happen soon enough, and having a clear, practical path to the future of cars should have a galvanizing effect. All that is needed is one simple policy change: charge more money for fossil fuels, in accordance with their true holistic costs. But shamefully, Congress is eviscerating Obama's cap-and-trade program into a giveaway to big polluters.

This is the time to act. As the auto industry resets, we have a golden opportunity to reorient to the future, not with government regulation and meddling, but with simple, economy-wide incentives that will get us past these dirty, indeed lethal, fuels. If American car companies do not fall over each other setting up partnerships and standards to allow battery swapping in their future electric vehicles, the domestic car industry may never recover from its current insolvency, ever.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

PTSD politics

Thoughts on Palestine as a case of PTSD politics.

Trauma and victimization are profoundly and permanently damaging. Recent stories about Iraq veterans show the permanent changes that can be wrought by PTSD, analogous to the permanent brain alterations that follow tobacco, alcohol, or cocaine addiction. Our brains are plastic and impressionable, degraded by degrading conditions. People who are ground down by traumatic conditions are prone to act irrationally and harbor bottomless resentments. Conversely, those brought up in security and prosperity tend to be optimistic and open-minded. That is the underlying rationale for America's "special role" in world affairs, borne as much of our long-term prosperity and security as of our ideals and political example.

To illustrate, the post-9/11 mood on the east coast, especially in Washington, was completely out of proportion to the threat posed, either by the World Trade towers attack or the antrax attacks. The terrorists terrorized (some of) us out of our collective wits without doing very much damage in absolute terms, mostly because Americans had been coddled for decades in a placid, secure country whose major questions revolved around the levels of interest rates and consumer confidence. Our much-vaunted ideals collapsed in a heartbeat, replaced by the vengeful drum-beating of an opportunistic president.

Imagine how we would have reacted had such devastation rained down on us on a daily basis, as in the recent Gaza war, where proportionate damage would have been 83,000 dead per week in the US. Or the recent civil carnage in Iraq, where proportionate damage in the US would have been roughly 20,000 to 30,000 dead per week, every week, for six years. The mind reels at what would have happened to our society. (Compare also the current US-wide death toll of ~825 per week from car accidents and 8,300 premature deaths per week from tobacco).

With this perspective, we can appreciate the intransigence and horror of the Israeli-Palestinian relationship. Locked in enmity and mutual trauma, they hate and are hated. They seek revenge and self-respect in the face of dehumanization. The open each other's scabs, and rub salt in the wounds.

Who is at fault? Well, the problem started with the displaced trauma of European antisemitism, reaching its climax in the holocaust.* While Palestinians where largely pro-Hitler and antisemitic by long Islamic tradition, they were peripheral to the convulsive drama of Europe's Jews .. until those Jews showed up on their doorstep, looking for a home. The Zionist project long pre-dated World War two, but that was when a trickle turned into a flood, and integration of the rising tide of Jews became impossible. They wanted their own space- Lebensraum, one might say- in Palestine.

They pursued all sorts of means, fair and foul, to get it, ranging from purchases of land to terrorism of the local Arabs. Already from the start, the Palestinians had dysfunctional politics, self-defeating reponses, and some bewilderment as to why, exactly, they were supposed to give up their land because some Europeans had been evil to other Europeans. The claims of Jews to their promised land fell on deaf Palestinian ears, as did the pleadings of the British, who were nominally in charge of the territory. The whole deal just did not make any sense.

Yet with force majeure on their side, and the sympathy of the former colonial powers as well as the US and the UN, the Israeli state was born in the teeth of Arab enmity- teeth which were shortly chipped and broken on the highly westernized military know-how of the young Jewish state in the 1948, 1967, and 1973 wars, culminating in Israel's control of the entire territory of Palestine. Incidentally, as a Europeanized, Westernized outpost, Israel also fulfilled in an ironic way the dreams of the European Crusades for conversion and repossession of the so-called "holy" land.

The traditional and Biblical method of dealing with the Palestinians at this point would have been to kill the males of age and sell the rest into slavery. Unfortunately, the requisite markets for slaves no longer existed, and the Jews had raised their ethical norms in the intervening millennia. Forced exile was another option that was explored, (called, in our hygenic age, "ethnic cleansing"), but naturally, no neighbor wanted to take in the now-traumatized and bitter Palestinians, or indirectly thereby help Israel out of its enormous problem.

So Israel was faced with an existential and moral conundrum: how to deal with an embittered enemy on their doorstep, in territory under their own control, within their own ethical precepts, so recently sharpened by their own travails? The answer was to semi-officially apply a water torture of gradual land purchase and expropriation driven by the most rabidly religious settlers, (who, because they are viewed as "more Jewish" than other Israelis, are given a pass on their unethical behavior and fanaticism, not to mention the irony of being excused from military service), along with big helpings of degrading treatment and collective punishment of the Palestinians via the ensuing occupation. In return, the Palestinians mounted what resistance they could, generally small-scale terrorism and guerrilla warfare.

It is clear that Israel has fundamentally violated its own morals and those of the modern enlightened age in its treatment of the Palestinians. The Palestinians for their part have violated the same norms, though they never subscribed to them, and would never have presented any problem had their territory not been disturbed in the first place. At any rate, the problem is one for the Israelis to resolve, since it is they who have the power: the airforce, the billions in weaponry supplied by the US, the nuclear bombs. For them to claim that the Palestinians are not "partners for peace" is totally disingenuous, since the historical process they have sponsored has rendered the Palestinians justifiably aggrieved, embittered, and traumatized, not to mention powerless in all respects other than to say the one word they can manage ... "No".

It might be useful to note here that there are only two ways to win a war- one is to kill the enemy, and the other is for the enemy to give up. An enemy who refuses to give up is one you can not defeat, (see Vietnam), thus the importance of winning "hearts and minds" in the current parlance, which is far more important than realized, even now.

I had thought that the border wall against the West Bank was the beginning of a good solution, hewing the old adage that good fences make good neighbors. But unfortunately, the Israelis placed the fence not on the 1967 border which would have been the logical (and legal) place to put it, but snaking through Palestinian territory, breaking up numerous communities, all in an effort to include as many settler zones as possible, and to impair as many Palestinian communities in their vicinty as possible.

And on top of that, they still couldn't stay out of the West Bank or Gaza, continuing to build settlements on the other side of the fence, building roads restricted to Israelis, blocking Palestinian roads, patrolling, subjecting Palestinians to checkpoints, blockading trade from time to time, bombing and destroying buildings, etc., etc., etc. So the fence has been highly successful from the Israeli perspective, keeping the other side at bay and pacified in a state comparable to apartheid, as Jimmy Carter put it. But it has not been an equitable boundary upon which to build a peaceful or neighborly relationship.

That is where we are now, and the way forward is for Israel to do what is right- not to give up its own territory in the form of a "right of return" for Palestinian re-assimilation of Israel, but to fairly divide the territory using the 1967 border as a starting point, and make that division stick by getting out of the Palestinian side completely, with a relocated fence. The Palestinians will need a road corridor to communicate between the West Bank and Gaza, so negotiations could exchange land, inch-for-inch, for such a corridor in exchange for selected settlements on the Israeli border.

We can grant that the Palestinian political system is thoroughly dysfunctional, corrupt, and self-defeating. That is no reason for Israel to not do what is right- to disengage its expropriation and occupation activities and let the Palestinians take care of themselves (with reasonable means to do so, like ports of their own in Gaza, open trade, etc). Only by disengaging will either side be able to heal its particular traumas and wounds.

Additionally, the Palestinians have been egged on and used by their false friends in Iran and Syria, doing themselves precious little good, and keeping them from tending to their own interests. The only way to break these relationships is to cut the ground from under the extremists by unilaterally offering and carrying out a fair deal for the Palestinian people.

At this point, one might ask about the Gaza situation. Didn't Israel disengage there, and didn't Hamas keep sending rockets into Israel? I would offer that compared to the problems of outright occupation, the problems of occasional rockets were minor. Additionally, the disengagement was far from complete, since Israel turned around and blockaded the elected Hamas government and otherwise made life very difficult for Gaza. And the proper solution to the rocket attacks was (and remains) to reply with immediate return fire to the point of rocket origin- easily possible with basic spotting capability- rather than to wait in silence, and then indulge in a frenzy of collective punishment, intended to "send a message" or "teach a lesson" in the form of 100-to-1 killing rates ... lessons that are never learned at the point of a gun. (See a revolting piece of embedded reporting in TNR.)

The remaining problem will be their continuing economic relationship, which is extensive. Palestinian workers endure dehumanizing daily crossings to work in Israel, and many other critical if fraught relationships exist. No doubt Israel will be tempted to exert pressure on its neighbor in perpetuity by these means, its economy being far more vibrant and influential. It is, of course, a temptation to be resisted, since nothing good comes of such pressure, as amply documented in the relationship to date. Israel's interest on every count- demographically, economically, and strategically, is to promote the economic development of Palestine, and Israel should offer treaties to that effect.

In the same vein, it is not Israel's job or right to control the tunnels or other trade routes into Gaza. If Gazans want to import their own bombs, tanks, etc., they should be able to do so. Using such weapons is another matter, but it is ultimately deceptive as well as futile to claim disengagement from the Palestinians while controlling their most basic contacts with the outside world. Without having responsibility for themselves, Palestinians will never take responsibility vis-a-vis Israel.

At any rate, the solution lies in fairness, separation, and disengagement. The only power the Palestinians have is to say no to the Israeli offers of peace, to offer token resistance with small arms and suicide terror, or rioting and rocks when pressed to extremis. Even this power/resentment would largely dissolve if Israel unilaterally provided a fair and sustainable territorial solution as outlined above, rather than continuing to treat the Palestinians as subhuman objects of slow-motion expropriation. And how do we get Israel to do what is right? Simply by withdrawing our various forms of support if they don't. Whether Israel got to this intransigent and immoral position consciously or not, the US has the leverage to dislodge them from it. (See a Cohn piece on tough love..)

It is sad and ironic that, to realize their Zionist dream, Jews turned around and created the very ghettos, dehumanization, and hatred that they fled in Europe. It is time to recover the humanity of both sides, by giving the Palestinians what is right (with or without negotiations) and allowing both sides to begin a healing process that will take generations.

Related links:
  • Podcasted discussion along the lines above, with Antony Loewenstein, heard after I wrote this.
  • Bush secretly supplies arms to Fatah, in hopes of a coup against Hamas.
  • Friedman makes similar points, indirectly.
  • Cohen, on how similar rational engagement with Iran would be extremely helpful.
  • Lengthy podcast on Israel and the fence, putatively "balanced".
  • Lengthy historical treatment.
  • Frontline segment about settlers.
  • Later article on Obama's reluctance in this area.
  • Later, Hitchens with an excellent piece on Israeli clerical extremism
Incidentally, an excellent review of Darwin, on this anniversary



* Let me note as an aside that one of the anti-semites in chief was none other than the founder of Protestantism- Martin Luther:
Martin Luther, "On the Jews and their lies", 1543
My advice, as I said earlier, is: First, that their synagogues be burned down, and that all who are able toss in sulphur and pitch; it would be good if someone could also throw in some hellfire. That would demonstrate to God our serious resolve and be evidence to all the world that it was in ignorance that we tolerated such houses, in which the Jews have reviled God, our dear Creator and Father, and his Son most shamefully up till now, but that we have now given them their due reward.
... Third, that they be forbidden on pain of death to praise God, to give thanks, to pray, and to teach publicly among us and in our country.
... Fourth, that they be forbidden to utter the name of God within our hearing.
... So let us beware. In my opinion the problem must be resolved thus: If we wish to wash our hands of the Jews' blasphemy and not share in their guilt, we have to part company with them. They must be driven from our country.
... But since they lack the power to do this publicly, they remain our daily murderers and bloodthirsty foes in their hearts. Their prayers and curses furnish evidence of that, as do the many stories which relate their torturing of children and all sorts of crimes for which they have often been burned at the stake or banished.