China 4: Kevin Rudd on "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era".
If the subhead to this post reads a little Orwellian, it should. It is the formal title of Xi Jinping's magnum opus- his leadership philosophy all about gaslighting the Chinese people and the world that ... capitalism is socialism, dictatorship is democracy, and brother Xi should lead China forever. Kevin Rudd has very impressively followed his prime ministership of Australia with graduate career studying China and Xi Jinping. This book is evidently part of his thesis work. So it is not really a popular book, but rather a more turgid close reading of all the "banner terms" of modern Chinese communism- the slogans that seem to drive Chinese politics. These slogans are deeply meaningful, but not easily parsed. It takes some expertise to know what is going on, as would be true in the US for a slogan like "Make America Great Again".
Let us dig into Xi's slogan a little. "Xi Jinping Thought" is unusual, in that only three modern leaders have had their names tied to a banner term. There have been "Theory of Three Represents", the "Great Leap Forward", even the "Two Whatevers", and many others, but only "Mao Zedong Thought" and "Deng Xioping Theory" were named for the individual leaders. And clearly, Xi has outdone them all in the length of his banner phrase! "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" harkens back to Mao's split from the Soviets, when Chinese communism was proclaimed to be something a bit different, more peasant-based, and one might say a little emperor-based as well. This through-line in PRC political philosophy was naturally strengthened when the Soviet Union imploded, and the PRC forged its own path, discarding Marxism in favor of capitalism, which is essentially what socialism with Chinese characteristics now amounts to, economically speaking. Politically however, Leninism reigns supreme.
Lastly, "a New Era" is a highly significant statement by Xi about the phases of socialism. Deng Xiaoping posited that China would have to go through a long phase of a "Primary phase of socialism", by which he meant capitalism, which would make China rich. Once China was rich, the party could think about how to divide the pie. But it was clear that socialism, as practiced either in China or in Russia, was never going to get them to a sufficiently prosperous state to gain any of the blessings of modernity, (or to a state of power vs its international adversaries), upon which Marx had after all based his ideal state. Deng noted that this primary phase might take generations- even hundreds of years. The idea was usefully vague. But Xi has cut the time line rather drastically, stating that China has already entered a new era (phase), that his plan is for China to be a moderately prosperous country by 2035, and a country by 2050 that is "a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful". This all means that "Opening and Reform" which had led to the pell-mell (and increasingly technocratic) capitalism of the Deng and post-Deng period can be dialed back, and that the preferences of the state / party (aka Xi Jinping), including some action against inequality, can be put on the agenda again.
So, just because it sounds Orwellian doesn't mean that there is nothing behind it. As for its content, Xi Jinping thought is a wide-ranging stew of platitudes, sharp policy reversals, and everything in between. But the central theme is putting the party (CCP) back in charge of everything again. Xi has instituted an unprecedented rolling, perpetual purge of the party from top to bottom to enforce discipline, prosecute corruption, and empower his allies. Xi recognizes that everything flows from ideology. If the ideology has become rotten, as it did in the Soviet Union, and has threatened to do in China during the wild-west capitalism of the last few decades, then faith declines, discipline declines, and the system becomes vulnerable to collapse. Thus Xi has focused on issuing a confident and sweeping ideology of how things should be run, with himself in charge of the party, the party in control of the state and country. This ideology incidentally does a great deal to rehabilitate Mao, mention Marx as often as humanly possible, and claim that it is socialism that the CCP is building in China.
You may have noticed that the word "democracy" entered into the statement above of the "Chinese dream". While the dream is mainly about power- personally, domestically, and internationally- it is also about quality of life. (Indeed, Xi goes so far as to accuse the West of "spiritual impoverishment".) Just as the word "Republic" figures into the name of the PRC, the word democracy figures (sparingly) into this national ideology. But it is not any kind of democracy we would recognize. It is the spirit of the people as expressed in the party- a "whole-process people's democracy". In fact, Xi has quashed all nascent practices of voting and internal democracy which had been sprouting within the party over the last few decades, to go with his bulldozing of collegial decision making at the top and term limits. (However, there is a significant history of protests in modern Chinese history, up to the current time, that can happen when the political strain is sufficiently great.)
All this became especially explicit in Document number 9. Kevin Rudd draws on many writings and speeches by Xi, but this document is particularly telling, as it was leaked from an internal set of deliberations early in Xi's reign (2012). It describes the ideology not so much in the glowing terms given publicly, but in far more existential terms as critical to prevent the rot and eventual fall of the party. Discipline over everything, as well as a fighting spirit to take the battle to the enemy, which is ... Western values. Out of this arose the "Wolf Warrior" phase of Chinese diplomacy, which was a sort of Trumpy, and rather counterproductive, reset of everything the Chinese diplomatic corps had known for decades, under Deng's "Hide and Bide" policy. They would turn the tables, by the usual magic of authoritarian projection, and claim themselves as the victim of bullying by the West, for their reasonable, scientific, and ancient cultural values.
As an aside, Deng's policy made, and still makes, eminent sense. Why? Because the US had shaped an extremely benevolent environment in Asia since World War 2. Shipping routes were free and open, trade was free and open. Japan was pacified. Asian tigers one by one took advantage of this environment to climb to prosperity. The US tried, in its ham-fisted way, to fight the bullies, whether they descended from North Korea, or from North Vietnam (governments that remain extraordinarily durable and repressive). The US was happy to educate millions of Chinese students and send them back with all the modern skills they could use to build China, capitalist or otherwise. The US was less happy, but still willing, to de-industrialize if that meant getting goods from China that were cheap. The only request in return was that China abide with the peaceful regime, particularly regarding Taiwan. And there was the natural hope that Western values would indeed spread and infiltrate into modern China along with capitalism, to bring China into the Asian system of alliances and friendly trade relationships.
Obviously, that did not happen. Xi Jinping is now furiously back-peddling on the whole deal, preaching "struggle" against Western values and a China Dream that has China not only solve its internal problems, but solve those of the next international order, by quashing human rights, elections, inefficiency, privacy, and all other encumbrances on the Chinese way of governance (helpfully summarized as the Seven Don't Mentions). Most ironically, China has twisted its own resurgence under capitalism as a peculiar justification of Marxism, Leninism, and Chinese culture. Kevin Rudd paints a stark picture of the sweeping nature and evolution of Xi Jinping Thought. Under the Orwellian rubric of "win-win" diplomatic relations and a "Community of Common Destiny", China is bullying its neighbors around the South China sea, bullying the UN, and other countries around the world such as in Africa. One senses a new mission, even an exceptionalism reminiscent of American exceptionalism, but quite a bit darker. As Kevin Rudd puts it: "... now the party's wider definition and vision of social justice was available to the world at large, delivered though the alternative international system that China was now building. For Xi, this will be China's 'city on a hill'".
One needn't deny the great accomplishments of China, in adopting capitalism to pull itself out of poverty, in establishing a technocracy that can build a remarkable high speed rail system and run it on time. And in keeping its government stable and attentive to its people's needs amidst great change internally and abroad. But the idea that Chinese governance by the CCP is a model for the future of the entire world does give one pause. Its foreign policy has not made it many friends. Its only true partners on the world stage are Russia and North Korea. For all its rhetorical dedication to non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and to their territorial integrity, it has allied itself not with Ukraine, which is being invaded, but with Russia, which is invading. (Of course, the fact that Donald Trump, contrary to the wishes of the US population and its Congress, has allied himself with Russia as well doesn't speak very highly of our own values at the moment.) China's model is not attractive to people across the world, though it is very attractive to authoritarians of all stripes, who wish to rule their people without their consent and in perpetuity. China's trade practices are also costing it influence, as it progresses up the value chain and floods the world with products that other countries want to retain viable industries in, such as auto production.
There is a long history of influence-shaping in CCP practice, some of which is straight propaganda, but part of which goes by "United Front Work", going back to the very founding of the party. It involves infiltrating other organizations and gaining power in them, co-opting friendly segments of enemy organizations and countries, such as in Taiwan, and generally presenting as anodyne a face as possible in order to gain acquiescence before revealing one's true intentions. Previously, the scope was narrow, targeting groups such as the Kuomintang, the leaders of Tibet and Xinjiang. But now, the targets are the UN, other international organizations, countries of the global South, and a blizzard of "friendly" initiatives, including Belt and Road, and the Global Security, Global Development, and Global Civilization (!) initiatives. It is nothing if not audacious. But as noted above, the effort is not gaining much purchase, since it is fundamentally unattractive, at least on a popular level. And Xi Jinping's wolf warrior approach hasn't helped either. Internally, Xi's Leninist retrenchment is degrading China's economic prospects and trading cultural vibrance for rigid discipline and adherence to "the mass line". Abroad, the dividends of Xi's rule have clearly been conflict rather than harmony, and propaganda only goes so far in a world that still (as yet) values truth, empathy, and harmony.
I will close with a conclusion by Kevin Rudd: "By contrast, Xi Jinping saw this potential political future for China and did not like what he saw. He understood what his predecessors were seeking to do by leaving the democratic door open for the next generation and decided instead to slam it tightly shut. Xi, as an intelligent man, also understood the costs of doing so. But he saw these social economic, and international reputational costs as well worth paying to preserve the power of the CCP for the long term. ... For him, the cost-benefit analysis of preserving China's Marxist-Leninist nationalist model was self-evident." "In Xi's belief system, the absolute power of a Leninist party remains axiomatic to the survival, strength, and success of both the party and the nation."
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