Peak Carbon?

Are we at peak oil, perhaps even peak burning? Thanks to Donald Trump, renewables are looking better than ever.

It turns out that using the oil weapon opens people's eyes to the alternatives. The Saudis have recognized for a long time that stability in oil pricing and supply was the way to keep the world addicted. But in the current wars, Russia has used the natural gas weapon, and Iran has used the oil weapon. Now the addicts realize what a thin needle it is that brings them the fossil fix. After two months of closure on the Strait of Hormuz, the economic responses around the world have been surprisingly muted. While Paul Krugman rang the alarm of $200/barrel oil, prices have stabilized around $110 or so. It turns out that demand is more elastic than anticipated, at least it has been while supplies are still in transit. However, as physical shortages begin to hit, prices may rise again.

As a matter of strategy, the US administration is clearly flailing, unwilling to recognize a loss, and callous about the worldwide harms being imposed by its fruitless dithering. Is a blockade of Iran going to break its government? That is highly unlikely. They have been through much worse, such as during their war with Iraq. Trump's attacks and insults have rallied the population, entirely contrary to the administration's intention, but entirely foreseeably. Iran's sensitivity to economic pain is much lower than ours. And, as the administration was already doing on an ongoing basis prior to its war, it continues to make enemies of the US around the world, more so with each passing day that shipping in the Persian Gulf is stalled.

Paul Krugman bemoaned the "demand destruction" that continued shortages and high prices would cause, which may lead to economic slowdowns, perhaps recession. However I welcome it. It represents conservation of this precious resource, and, one might say, more realistic pricing that brings in, at least to a small degree, the widespread harms of fossil fuels. When one adds volatility and geostrategic dependencies, on top of the gross environmental harms, and what is now an economic disadvantage of fossil fuels when compared with renewable energy, the solution is clear, if not easy. The transition to renewable energy is going to accelerate.

Trend of world-wide carbon emissions.

Currently, the world is at the cusp of still-rising carbon emissions. This means that, even after all the climate conferences, and the reports, the activism, and the technological development, humanity as a whole is still burning more fossil carbon every year than the year before, and thus increasing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere ever faster, and driving the climate crisis to ever-accelerating harms and disasters. Is it possible that this strategic-economic crisis, brought on by the blundering of a demented US administration- one that has done all in its power to deny climate change and scuttle the energy transition- will finally turn the tide? Could we be at peak carbon? And if so, will the downslope of emissions be faster than the upslope, in this slow-motion catastrophe? One can see that the US is already past peak carbon, and the state of California stands at 75% of the peak carbon emissions, which happened back in 2004. The upslope has been driven by highly uneven, and gradual, technological development and increased population. The downslope will be driven by the much more globally integrated rise of renewable technologies, so it has a chance of happening at a faster pace, despite the challenges of transitioning difficult economic sectors like trucking and aviation.

With the economic tailwinds of cheaper energy storage technologies, coupled with other advances in geothermal, solar, and wind power collection, the transition is inevitable. But public policy can make it faster or slower. The Biden administration worked towards the future, while the current administration works against it. Outside the US, China is enabling both its own transition and those of all other countries by leading extremely efficient solar and storage manufacturing. Those economics are going to eliminate new coal plant construction, and eventually use of all fossil fuels. China now sells more EV than fossil-based automobiles. While it has a prodigious fleet of coal-burning power plants, and is still building new ones, the overall level of coal power generation has leveled off, as it closes plants close to reduce pollution in sensitive urban areas.

While ironies abound, the important part of the story is that the biosphere is baking and needs help as fast as possible. If that help comes through the narcissism of small-minded tyrants, so be it. 

• Caesar, King, tomato, tomahto.
• Coding is toast.
• Renewable energy has beaten methane in the US electricity generation.