Just Whose Foreign Policy Is This?

Our foreign policy appears to be led by people whom Trump gets weak in the knees for. Does that serve US or world interests?

US foreign policy serves not only US interests. We share an interest in the peaceful, prosperous, and sustainable future of the whole world, and as the leading nation, have an outsize role in its development. That is why Barack Obama got a Nobel peace prize, and why Donald Trump will not. As with most bullies, Trump puts on a show of strength and enjoys humiliating the weak. But there is also a curious weakness. He also loves humiliating himself at the feet of bigger and tougher bullies, for reasons that I frankly do not understand. 

The current war on Iran is not really in the US interest. Iran had already been boxed in by last year's attacks, which had supposedly obliterated any nuclear ambition. It is Israel that, in the person of Bibi Netanyahu, has been beating the drum about attacking Iran for several decades. It is Netanyahu who has been whispering in Trump's ear about how easy all this would be, including how the Iranian government would crumple under sustained assault. But I am sure our own intelligence knew better- that the Islamic state of Iran is a tough customer, having lived through the original takeover and US hostage crisis, then the brutal war with Iraq. It has legions of loyal IRGC and Basij all over the country. 

Unlike Netanyahu's view of things focused on its tactical defense, the US interest is in the long-term positive evolution of Iran, not in its tactical weakening. The bombing campaign is not only not going to break the government, but will make it stronger vs its people internally. The two likely paths it will lead to are, (at best) a civil war breaking out among the current actors in power, if they are not happy with the new supreme leader and the defense the Islamic leadership takes in this war. Or second, and more likely, the continued involution and isolation of the Iranian government, heading towards a North Korean model in a culture of suffering and perpetual resistance. And also, incidentally, the acquisition of a nuclear bomb at any cost. The idea that the powerless masses will somehow march their way into power during a bombing campaign is ridiculous.

So it is obvious that Trump was sweet-talked into this war, with no request from congress, no clamor from the American people, and no precipitating threat abroad, by none other than Netanyahu. And he was not smart enough to realize that he would not have a way out that serves US interests. Now oil prices are up, stocks are down, and those economic interests who really have the president's ear are going to be urging surrender after what, strategically speaking, has been a futile and immiserating affair. 

Even worse has been our policy towards Russia and Ukraine. It is evident that Trump loves to talk with Vladimir Putin, and Putin knows how to manipulate Trump. Just this week, the US dropped sanctions on Russian oil, in a bid to clean up its catastrophe in the Persian Gulf. Not seize Russian oil and sell it into world markets to benefit Ukraine, not block shipments of Russia's shadow fleet, but outright dropping sanctions. It is unbelievable, in any world where US interests drive US policy.

The Ukraine fight would have benefited from more decisiveness from the start, obviously. At least the Biden administration was rhetorically consistent, on the side of Ukraine, its position in Europe, and supporting our European allies. Our strategic interest is firstly in keeping Europe free of military conflict (as we keep the North American region). And secondly in containing Russia, in its new guise of anti-NATO imperialist revanchist power. Now all these aims are subordinated to getting a bad real-estate deal in Eastern Ukraine, and giving Russia what it wants. 

All through the second Trump administration, the US has been following Russian desires, reducing our support for Ukraine to nothing, berating Volodimir Zelensky in person, and bad-mouthing our European allies and alliance structures. How is all this in the US interest, when our core power stems from leadership of a community of like-minded and like-valued allies that have particularly and especially foresworn making Europe a battlefield? It is making the US weaker by the day. All due to the mental weakness of Donald Trump.