It is time we recognize reality.
Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan (ROC) certainly stirred up a hornet's nest. The PRC (mainland China) threw a fit of hate, saber rattling, and jingoism. The US has been playing into this situation for decades, after the Nixon administration acceded to the PRC's demand to recognize the "one China" policy. Originally, this was not such a big lift, since this was also the policy of the ROC- with the only difference that in its view, China would eventually be unified under the auspices of the ROC, not the PRC. Today, things are different, with the PRC having westernized its economy and grown into a behemoth that vies with the US for world leadership and threatens all its neighbors.
Taiwan has a native population, the Formosans, who are not, unfortunately, part of this discussion at all, but are an oppressed minority on their own island. The island became a province of China roughly from 1700 to 1900 (after being colonized by the Dutch). Then it was ruled by the Japanese empire, after which it was over-run by the nationalists fleeing the Chinese Civil War. Supporting the ROC was reflexive for Western anticommunists, despite it being a dictatorship up to 1987. But now, after it has evolved into a healthy democracy, the US position should be even more simple and direct- we should recognize reality, which is that Taiwan is an independent country on its own historical path that is one of self-determination and independence from the mainland.
All this is subject to the decisions of the Taiwanese themselves, naturally. They have not yet declared independence from China, for instance, and may yet come to some accommodation with their neighbor. But we shouldn't be selling them out to be another Hong Kong. Instead, we should support their right to self-determination and independence, to preserve their highly successful economic and political culture, and their membership in international organizations.
So, what of the PRC? Won't they be irritated, even enraged, if we formally renounce the one-China policy? Absolutely. Would they break diplomatic relations? They might, but we have so many important areas of cooperation and negotiation that such a step would not likely last long. I don't think the PRC can hold out on a diplomatic boycott of this kind for very long, especially if the US is joined by other countries recognizing the reality of an independent, self-determining Taiwan. Back in the Nixon era, we had a very specific goal, which was to use relations with China to scare the Russians. That was quite successful, and led to a long and productive relationship, especially for China.
In general, it is better to irritate bullies than to appease them. The Taiwan situation has reached a critical point for a variety of reasons. On Taiwan's side, they are now the foremost world center of advanced semiconductor manufacture. The PRC would naturally view it as a critical asset in their drive to control the global economy. Mainland China has bided its time for many decades, while it slowly and painfully rebuilt its own power, and one can sense an almost convulsive urge to consummate the re-unification by force, which would be conveniently accompanied by the final destruction of its founding enemies. It is carefully laying groundwork all over the South China sea, in its navy, armed forces, alliances, soft power, and internal propaganda. It is the only actor on the scene threatening war.
It is a situation very similar to that of Ukraine. Russia has had a "one-Russia" policy, in that it regards Ukraine as "little Russia" even though it butchered Ukrainians during its own civil war and then more thoroughly during the great famine under Stalin. They have a fraternal, and fratricidal, relationship. The West nevertheless encouraged Ukraine to become a Westernized country, with possible membership in the EU and NATO. And how we have a war, which has ripped Ukraine apart, with no end in sight. Are we asking for the same outcome in Taiwan? As I write, Russia and China are planning joint military exercises.
Well, we might be, but ultimately it is up to Taiwan to figure it out, as it was for Ukraine to decide which way they wanted to go. We should stand for self-determination and against bullying. At this point in history, seventy years on, there is very little justification for us or the PRC to maintain that the ROC is merely a province and should be subject to hostile re-absorption. It is an ambiguity that may have been diplomatic in the past, but now is misleading and dangerous. No, the ROC has made its independent place in the world, and the sooner we recognize that reality, the more realistic and productive relations throughout the region can be. That includes a recalibration of the PRC's views of the matter, and the recognition internationally that while Taiwan might concievably want to re-unify with the PRC for its own cultural and economic reasons, we fully oppose, on every level, any coerced or military takeover. Our military relationship doesn't have to change. We do not need to enter into a full alliance with Taiwan, only to recalibrate relations to recognize their right to an independent existence, however they choose to carry that out.
There is also a more positive view. The PRC in its current condition would not be an attractive partner for re-unification- it has not been for Hong Kong, or for Tibet, and much less so for the ROC. But mainland China might also change. There is no telling what the future may hold. The recent passing of Mikhail Gorbachev reminded us that history can move pretty quickly, and while the "communist" government of the PRC seems very stable, there are many tensions and problems under the surface. The more they fulminate against the ROC, the more their people would be exposed to the question of what exactly is so terrible about the extremely prosperous, peaceful, and democratic system lying across the Taiwan strait.
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