American Occupations and Preoccupations

Douglass North on the role of institutions in our society, part 2. "Understanding the process of economic change". Also, "Violence and Social Orders". American occupations of Germany, Japan, and Afghanistan and Iraq are case studies of institutions at work. 

In part 1, I discussed the role of ideology and thought patterns in the context of institutional economics, which is the topic of North's book. This post will look at the implications for developmental economics. In this modern age, especially with the internet, information has never been more free. All countries have access to advanced technological information as well as the vast corpus of economics literature on how to harness it for economic development and the good of their societies. Yet everywhere we look, developing economies are in chains. What is the problem? Another way to put it that we have always had competition among relatively free and intelligent people, but have not always had civilization, and have had the modern civilization we know today, characterized by democracy and relatively free economic diversity, for only a couple of centuries, in a minority of countries. This is not the normal state of affairs, despite being a very good state of affairs.

The problem is clearly not that of knowledge, per se, but of its diffusion (human capital), and far more critically, the social institutions that put it to work. The social sciences, including economics, are evidently still in their infancy when it comes to understanding the deep structure of societies and how to make them work better. North poses the basic problem of the transition between primitive ("natural") economies, which are personal and small-scale, to advanced economies that grew first in the West after the Renaissance, and are characterized by impersonal, rule-based exchange, with a flourishing of independent organizations. Humans naturally operate on the first level, and it requires the production of a "new man" to suit him and her to the impersonal system of modern political economies. 

This model of human takes refuge in the state as the guarantor of property, contracts, money, security, law, political fairness, and many other institutions foundational to the security and prosperity of life as we know it. This model of human is comfortable interacting with complete strangers for all sorts of transactions from mundane products using the price system to complex and personal products like loans and health care using other institutions, all regulated by norms of behavior as well as by the state, where needed. This model of human develops intense specialization after a long education in very narrow productive skills, in order to live in a society of astonishing diversity of work. There is an organized and rule-based competition to develop such skills to the most detailed and extensive manner. This model of human relies on other social institutions such as the legal system, consumer review services, and standards of practice in each field to ensure that the vast asymmetry of information between the specialized sellers of other goods and services that she needs is not used against her, in fraud and other breaches of implicit faith. 

All this is rather unlike the original model, who took refuge in his or her clan, relying on the social and physical power of that group to access economic power. That is, one has to know someone to use land or get a job, to deal with other groups, to make successful trades, and for basic security. North characterizes this society as "limited access", since it is run by and for coalitions of the powerful, like the lords and nobility of medieval Europe or the warlords of Afghanistan today. For such non-modern states, the overwhelming problem is not that of economic efficiency, but of avoiding disintegration and civil war. They are made up of elite coalitions that limit violence by allocating economic rewards according to political / military power. If done accurately on that basis, each lord gets a stable share, and has little incentive to start a civil war, since his (or her) power is already reflected in his or her economic share, and a war would necessarily reduce the whole economic pie, and additionally risks reducing the lord to nothing at all. This is a highly personalized, and dynamic system, where the central state's job is mostly to make sure that each of the coalition members is getting their proper share, with changes reflecting power shifts through time.

Norman castles locations in Britain. The powers distributed through the country were a coalition that required constant maintenance and care from the center to keep privileges and benefits balanced and shared out according to the power of each local lord.

For example, the Norman invasion of Britain installed a new set of landlords, who cared nothing for the English peasants, but carried on an elite society full of jealousies and warfare amongst themselves to grab more of the wealth of the country. Most of the time, however, there was a stable balance of power, thus of land allotments, and thus of economic shares, making for a reasonably peaceful realm. All power flowed through the state, (the land allotments were all ultimately granted by the king, and in the early days were routinely taken away again if the king was displeased by the lord's loyalty or status), which is to say through this coalition of the nobles, and they had little thought for economic efficiency, innovation, legal niceties, or perpetual non-political institutions to support trade, scholarship, and innovation. (With the exception of the church, which was an intimate partner of the state.)

Notice that in the US and other modern political systems, the political system is almost slavishly devoted to "the economy", whereas in non-modern societies, the economy is a slave to the political system, which cavalierly assigns shares to the powerful and nothing to anyone else, infeudating them to the lords of the coalition. The economy is assumed to be static in its productivity and role, thus a sheer source of plunder and social power, rather than a subject of nurture and growth. And the state is composed of the elite whose political power translates immediately into shares of a static economic pie. No notion of democracy here!

This all comes to mind when considering the rather disparate fates of US military occupations that have occurred over the last century, where we have come directly up against societies that we briefly controlled and tried to steer in economically as well as socially positive directions. The occupations of Germany, Japan, Afghanistan, and Iraq came to dramatically different ends, principally due to the differing levels of ingrained beliefs and institutional development of each culture (one could add a quasi-occupation of Vietnam here as well). While Germany and Japan were each devastated by World War 2, and took decades to recover, their people had long been educated into an advanced instutional framework of economic and civic activity. Some of the devastation was indeed political and social, since the Nazis (as well as the imperial Japanese system) had set up an almost medieval (i.e. fascist) system of economic control, putting the state in charge of directing production in a cabal with leading industrialists. Yet despite all that, the elements were still in place for both nations to put their economies back together and in short order rejoin the fully developed world, in political and economic terms. How much of that was due to the individual human capital of each nation, (i.e. education in both technical and civic aspects), and how much was due to the residual organizational and institutional structures, such as impersonal legal and trade expectations, and how much due to the instructive activities of the occupying administration?

One would have to conclude that very little was due to the latter, for try as we might in Iraq and Afghanistan, their culture was not ready for full-blown modernity (elections, democracy, capitalism, rule of law, etc.) in the political-economic sense. Many of their people were ready, and the models abroad were and remain ready for application. Vast amounts of information and good will is at their disposal to build a modern state. But, alas, their real power structures were not receptive. Indeed, in Afghanistan, each warlord continued to maintain his own army, and civil war was a constant danger, until today, when a civil war is in full swing, conducted by the Taliban against a withering central state. The Taliban has historically been the only group with the wide-spread cultural support (at least in rural areas), and the ruthlessness to bring order to (most of) Afghanistan. Its coalition with the other elites is based partly on doctrinaire Islam (which all parties across the spectrum pay lip service to) and brutal / effective authoritarianism. When the US invaded, we took advantage of the few portions outside the existing power coalition, (in the north), arming them to defeat the Taliban. That was an instance of working with the existing power structures.

But replacing or reforming them was an entirely different project. The fact is that the development of modern economies took Western countries centuries, and takes even the most avid students (Taiwan, South Korea, China to a partial degree) several decades of work to retrace. North emphasizes that development from primitive to modern political-economic systems is not a given, and progress is as likely to go backward as forward, depending at each moment on the incentives of those in power. To progress, they need to see more benefit in stability and durable institutions, as opposed to their own freedom of action to threaten the other members of the coalition, keep armies, extort economic rents, etc. Only as chaos recedes, stability starts being taken for granted, and the cost of keeping armies exceeds their utility, does the calculus gradually shift. That process is fundamentally psychological- it reflects the observations and beliefs of the actors, and takes a long time, especially in a country such as Afghanistan with such a durable tradition of militarized independence and plunder.

So what should we have done, instead of dreaming that we could build, out of the existing culture and distribution of power, a women-friendly capitalist modern democracy in Afghanistan? First, we should have seen clearly at the outset that we had only two choices. First was to take over the culture root and branch, with a million soldiers. The other was to work within the culture on a practical program of reform, whose goal would have been to take them a few steps down the road from a "fragile" limited access state- where civil war is a constant threat- to a "basic" limited access state, where the elites are starting to accept some rules, and the state is stable, but still exists mostly to share out the economic pie to current power holders. Indeed the "basic" state is the only substantial social organization- all other organizations have to be created by it or affiliated with it, because any privilege worth having is jealously guarded by the state, in very personal terms.

Incidentally, the next step in North's taxonomy of states would be the mature limited access order, where laws begin to be made in a non-personal way, non-state organizations are allowed to exist more broadly, like commercial guilds, but the concepts of complete equality before the law and free access to standardized organization types has not yet been achieved. That latter would be an "open access order", which modern states occupy. There, the military is entirely under the democratic and lawful control of a central state, and the power centers that are left in the society have become more diffuse, and all willing to compete within an open, egalitarian legal framework in economic as well as political matters. It was this overall bargain that was being tested with the last administration's flirtation with an armed coup at the Capital earlier this year.

In the case of Afghanistan, there is a wild card in the form of the Taliban, which is not really a localized warlord kind of power, which can be fairly dealt out a share of the local and national economic pie. They are an amalgam of local powers from many parts of the country, plus an ideological movement, plus a pawn of Pakistan, the Gulf states, and the many other funders of fundamentalist Islam. Whatever they are, they are a power the central government has to reckon with, both via recognition and acceptance, as well as competition and strategies to blunt their power.

Above all, peace and security has always been the main goal. It is peace that moderates the need for every warlord to maintain his own army, and which nudges all the actors toward a more rule-based, regular way to harvest economic rents from the rest of the economy, and helps that economy grow. The lack of security is also the biggest calling card for the Taliban, as an organization that terrorizes the countryside and foments insecurity as its principal policy (an odd theology, one might think!). How did we do on that front? Well, not very well at all. The presence of the US and allies was in the first place an irritant. Second, our profusion of policies of reform, from poppy eradication, to women's education, to showpiece elections, to relentless, and often aimless, bombing, took our eyes off the ball, and generated ill will virtually across the spectrum. One gets the sense that Hamid Karzai was trying very hard to keep it all together in the classic pattern of a fragile state, by dealing out favors to each of the big powers across the country in a reasonably effective way, and calling out the US occasionally for its excesses. But from a modern perspective, that all looks like hopeless corruption, and we installed the next government under Ashraf Ghani which tried to step up modernist reforms without the necessary conditions of even having progressed from a fragile to a basic state, let alone to a mature state or any hint of the "doorstep conditions" of modernity that North emphasizes. This is not even to mention that we seem to have set up the central state military on an unsustainable basis, dependent on modern (foreign) hardware, expertise, and funding that were always destined to dry up eventually.

So, nation-building? Yes, absolutely. But smarter nation-building that doesn't ask too much of the society being put through the wringer. Nation-building happens in gradual steps, not all at once, not by fiat, and certainly not by imposition by outsiders (Unless we have a couple of centuries to spare, as the Normans did). Our experience with the post-world war 2 reconstructions was deeply misleading if we came away with the idea that those countries did nothing but learn at the American's knee and copy the American template, and were not themselves abundantly prepared for institutional and economic reconstruction.

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Nature and the Corporation

Douglass North on the role of institutions in our society, part 1. "Understanding the process of economic change"

Institutions, in the thinking of this book and its general field of institutional economics, are the rules of the game of life, while people and their organizations are the players. The practice of going to workplaces and being forced to work there for eight hours, and then going home.. that is an institution of modern societies, based partly on unwritten traditions, and partly on explicit rules written in laws, regulations, organizational guidelines, etc.  The fabric of our lives, and particularly the efficiency and success of our economies, depend on the details and quality of institutions, which set the parameters and incentives throughout the system, which the actors then grapple with, trying to either to satisfy them in competition against other actors, or to evade them, or to alter them through legal, polical, or social means. 

For example, North cites other writers who have concluded that one of the fundamental defects of the Muslim world, as it fell behind the Northern Europeans in economic and cultural terms through the Middle Ages, was the complete lack of the cultural institution of the corporation. Muslim commercial law centers around partnerships, typically very small partnerships between an investor and a merchant, which form anew for each trade mission. But until modern times and reforms inspired by the West, there was no legal form for corporations, which are so fundamental to the Western economic model, providing durable legally and financially independent homes for entrepreneurial teamwork and innovation. Corporations obviously tap into natural human tribalism, offering the familiar setting of small group cohesion and competition, and helpfully cross-cutting against other cultural organizations and power centers such as actual clans, tribes, nations, and religious groupings.

This is a very powerful view of how culture and economics interact. Are corporations all good? Obviously not. They are given rules by the culture at large, though traditional practices and by legal structures when those unwritten rules prove insufficient. Child labor, fraud, tax evasion, family-destroying work schedules... the ways corporations have to make money in socially destructive ways, and thus the ways in which they need to be regulated, are endless. And it is our collective view of these harms and our capacity through social and legal structures / sanctions to address them that manifest in the strength and quality of our institutions.

And here is where one looks back in horror at what has happened to our institutional structures over the last few decades. Donald Trump was merely the apotheosis of lawlessness and institutional destruction that has been the program of the Right for decades. It was enunciated most charmingly by Ronald Reagan, (earning him high grades from historians), but he was only repeating the thoughts of intellectuals like Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman who made such persuasive cases for the "freedom" part of free enterprise. I recall especially the spellbinding nature of Friedman's narratives, which contrasted the sclerosis of communist economies with the vibrancy of free markets. Friedman was a hedgehog, advocating one big idea and bulldozing through any nuance or complication. And I regard him as the most influential cultural figure responsible for the general inequality and institutional weakness we find ourselves facing today.

A typical nostrum from Milton Friedman. As though "freedom" was self-explanatory and absolute. Rich people take it to mean something quite different from how others take it, and therein lies the destructive magic of this ideology. 

For he was spinning fairy tales, quite simply. The free market was always good, the government was always bad in his telling. Ham fisted regulation and intrusive economic policy were only one target of attack. Money and inflation was another, and one of the most damaging wedges of this argument. The government is necessarily in charge of the money, by printing it and managing its value through the interest rate, banking regulation, and other mechanisms. But the private sector and general economic conditions are obviously enormous factors as well, creating a complex system of feedbacks and unanticipated events. But Friedman gleefully pinned all the blame for inflation on the government, pronounced a false simplicity in his monetarist program, and used it to further bludgeon the state to get out of the regulatory business. If the government couldn't even get something as simple as the money supply right, how could it possibly have the intellectual wherewithal to regulate the internet, or corporate mergers and concentration, or industrial policy vs other countries? This was the kind of thinking that led to people buying gold, and eventually to the thought that we should get back on the gold standard, one of the greatest lunacies of right-wing politics. (Which Friedman would never have subscribed to, incidentally.)

This intellectual and rhetorical attack, so richly supported and cheered by business interests and the rich, led to the following decades of revolt by the Right against all forms of regulation and enfetterment by the government, to the point now that Republicans speak blithely of defunding the IRS, as if defunding the government and enabling vast tax avoidance consitutes the most natural and virtuous motivation that anyone could imagine. And the gross over-simplifications that Friedman engaged in, his rhetorical excesses, are reflected in more general anti-intellectual trends like the denialism and warfare waged by the right against climate change, among many other topics of urgent and common interest. He, Nobel Prize winner that he was, disastrously debased our intellectual debates on politics and economics. His narrative framing (and that of the whole Chicago school) shaped a generation and more, misleading us into false certainties and terrible policies.

Now, our institutions are in tatters, given that half of our political system is in open warfare against the very idea of productive regulation of economic affairs and a positive role for the state in managing elementary unfairnesses and corruptions that are mounting across our political and economic systems. No wonder that on the world stage, our system is no longer in the vanguard, but is faced with a fundamental challenge coming from states (principally China) whose political systems remain in the driver's seat in managing social institutions, including economic institutions of all kinds, even while harnessing markets in extremely successful ways. 

The question is not whether the government is good or bad, or whether corporations are good or bad. Both institutions have critical and positive roles to play in our prosperity. Both are tools, not ends in themselves. Both need rules to operate effectively- government to be refreshed (via elections, education, research, and new talent) by ever-expanding public perspectives on how society can be improved, and business by an active set of institutions and rules set down by the government to channel all that greed to productive directions instead of the socially destructive directions it inevitably takes when rules are absent. (See Haiti, post-war Iraq, and Afghanistan for examples.) Indeed, it is not going out on a limb to state that business people who spend their time railing against regulations, legal strictures and other institutions designed to make economic markets fair, socially responsible, and productive are not really interested in business at all, but in plunder.

"Because there is a widespread prejudice among many neo-classical economists that simply an absence of government intervention is a sufficient condition for good economic performance in a particular market, it is important to stress that the performance characteristics of any market are a function of the set of constraints imposed by institutions (formal rules- including those by government- informal norms, and the enforcement characteristics) that determine the incentive structure in that market. As noted in the discussion of institutional change in chapter 5, if the incentives reward piracy then that will be the outcome. Any economist who doubts the importance of this observation has only to examine the characteristics of various factor and product markets in Russia in the 1990s to be convinced that it is the incentive structure derived from the institutional framework that is decisive. The rash of entrepreneurial malfeasance in large U.S. corporations in 2001-2 has reflected the evolution of the institutional framework that has altered relative prices to provide incentives for such anti-social behavior."  p.77

 

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Sneakey Eating

An evolutionary perspective on overeating syndromes.

Most animals have a simple problem in life- find enough food to live and survive. But social animals, if they are even slightly advanced, share food, and thus alter this basic equation. They have to find ways to store and share food in a way that sustains the group, whether that is starving the old, or feeding the helpless larvae that can not feed themselves. Humans have always faced this dilemma, but don't have the rigid programming that insects do.

Humans can lie, and steal, and then lie some more. It isn't pretty, but sometimes it gets the job done. Humans can regard rules as optional, a flexibility that is a perpetual threat to institutions, norms, cultural patterns, and ultimately to group success. We recently went through an administration that regarded norms as suggestions, laws as annoyances, and then wondered why their behavior attracted so much hatred, and such low historical esteem.

This dynamic comes to mind more concretely in the case of overeating syndromes, which exemplify the conflict between the individual and the group. In a prehistoric setting, food was almost always scarce and precious. In all native cultures there are elaborate practices of public food sharing and eating, which contribute to surveillance by the community of what everyone is eating. Anyone who violates such social structures must have been severely penalized.

Public, communal eating is a fundamental human practice.

Imagine then that someone feels a compulsion to eat more than their share. Such a compulsion would be highly advantageous- if successful- to enable survival when the others in the group might be starving or malnourished. Some extra weight might well mean the difference of making it through the next winter or not. But being caught could dramatically alter the calculus. Primitive societies had harsh punishments for violating critical norms, including ostracism or execution. What then? 

I would suggest that this background sets the stage for overeating syndromes that commonly combine secret eating, often at night, stealth, and stealing. In a world of plenty like today, it is stigmatized and medicalized, and due to the abundance of food, relatively easy to navigate and thus easy to gain weight from. But pre-historically, it would have been far more fraught, and challenging, probably less likely to result in easily observable weight gains. Like other issues in social life, this conflict would take the form of an arms race between cheaters and rule-enforcers. It would be a cognitive battle between effective surveillance and punishment, vs stealth and the intelligence required to not get caught. So one can view it as one impetus among many other evolutionary forces that shaped human intelligence, and in light of its considerable incidence in modern populations, an arms race that was never resolved. Indeed, it is the type of trait that comes under balancing selection, where a high incidence in a population would be self-defeating, while a low incidence yields a much more successful outcome.

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How a Nervous System is Maintained

Researchers have mapped how transcriptional programming specifies C. elegans neurons.

Model systems in biology have led the way into knowledge of body development. Fruit flies have been the target of intensive work on the genetic origins of morphogenesis and body plan specification, finding successive action by maternally deposited proteins or mRNAs, gap genes, pair rule genes, and homeotic genes to specify ever finer segments of the body. 

An even simpler model system was later developed, in the tiny worm C. elegans, a nematode, which is smaller, faster-developing than the fruit fly, and also transparent. This organism is attractive for some neurobiology studies, (despite lacking a brain), since its nervous system is both simple and stereotypical- every worm has 302 neurons, of 118 types, laid out in pretty much the same pattern, all easily visible. 

The neurons of C. elegans, in overview. Only the cell body locations are shown, not their various axonal and dendritic processes.

A recent paper therefore looked into the question of how these neurons are specified- how they maintain their identity through the life of the worm, after their original development. The fruit fly genes mentioned above that lay out the body plan are almost all transcription regulators- proteins that regulate the expression of other genes by binding near them and turning on (or off) transcription. A cascade of such regulators allows complex programs of refinement and specification to be carried out, to the point that individual cells are told what they are supposed to be and what features they are supposed to express. These patterns of transcription eventually get cast in stone by the durable repression of unneeded genes, and feedback loops that perpetuate the expression of whatever ones at the end are required to maintain the particular specified type. These are also transcription regulators acting at the end of the line of the developmental pathway, and are called "terminal selectors", since they regulate /select the final sets of genes to be expressed in that cell type which manifest whatever it is supposed to be. 

So a question is- what kind of terminal selectors are active in the stereotyped neurons of C. elegans? Are there just a few for each neuron, used broadly to control all its distinctive genes, or are there many different ones deployed in a complex combinatorial code of transcription regulators to control the final gene expression and the cell type? What they found was that these worms use mostly the former method, and much less the latter. But there can be over 20 such regulators deployed in combination to set up some of these neuronal cells.

For each neuron type (top graph, bottom axis), the associated transcriptional regulators are either common (blue) or rare and particular (green). Common regulators are used to broadly bind to and activate many or most of that neuron's specifically expressed genes. The bottom graph shows the various regulators (bottom axis), and counts how many neuron types they operate in (Y-axis). Some of these regulators are used by many neurons, yet by their cooperation with other regulators can be relied on to specify a particular cell type.

The methods these researchers use are two-fold. One is to sequence all the RNAs of each specific neuron (generally called single cell sequencing). This was used to find all the specifically (differentially) expressed genes of each neuronal cell type, whose upstream regions were then investigated to find the binding sites for all the known transcription regulators of C. elegans. This catalog of target binding sites, genes and their binding regulators could then be compiled to ask whether each cell type had a characteristic pattern ... and generally they do. A second method was to consult a previously developed collection of many "reporter" genes, which had each been fused to bit of DNA encoding a fluorescent protein, which then were screened as being expressed specifically in one or another neuron of C. elegans. This collection of 1000 genes was likewise scanned for its regulatory sites and binding transcription regulators, and the authors found completely concordant results- that here too. the same combinations of regulators were used time and again to activate the specific genes of each neuron. 

Analysis of one gene, and one regulator, through evolutionary time. One key analysis to find regulator sites on a gene was to ask whether its sites were conserved in related species. Here, the ODR-7 DNA-binding regulator has binding sites both upstream and within the olrn-1 gene. Sites are shown in purple, the gene transcription start is shown with the big arrow at top, and the gene's coding exons are shown in black blocks downstream of the start site. The locations of the sites are not well conserved, but their presence is quite well conserved, here on a gene that is expressed in AWS neurons, and necessary for them to occur. 

So development, specification, and maintenance of the body are encoded by the genome largely via a program of regulators that are placed where they are supposed to be, and then successively activate, out of the genome, further parts of the control series in defined regions, and finally regulate the genes required to manifest the body plan in particular places, by expressing (or repressing) genes for the ion channels, cytoskeletal formation, neurotransmitters, and all other specific bric-a-brac of each cell type.

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Tuning Into the Brain

Oscillations as a mechanism of binding, routing, and selection of thoughts.

The brain is plastic, always wiring and rewiring its neurons, even generating new neurons in some areas. But this plasticity does not come near the speed and scale needed to manage brain function at the speed of thought. At that perspective and scale, our brains are static lumps, which somehow manage to dynamically assemble thoughts, visions, impressions, actions, and so much more as we go about our frenetic lives. It has gradually become clear that neural oscillations, or electrical brain waves, which are such a prominent feature of active brains, serve centrally to facilitate this dynamic organization, joining up some areas via synchrony for focused communication, while leaving others in the dark- unattended and waiting for their turn in the spotlight. 

The physical anatomy of the brain is obviously critical to organizing all the possible patterns of neural activity, from the most unconscious primary areas of processing and instinct to whatever it is that constitutes consciousness. But that anatomy is relatively static, so a problem is- how do some brain areas take precedence for some thoughts and activities, while others take over during other times? We know that, very roughly, the whole brain tends to be active most of the time, with only slight upticks during intensive processing, as seen in the induced blood flow detected by methods such as fMRI. How are areas needed for some particular thought brought into a dynamic coalition, which is soon after dissolved with the next thought? And how do such coalitions contribute to information flow, and ultimately, thought?

Oscillations seem to provide much of this selectivity, and the last decade of research has brought an increasingly detailed appreciation of its role in particular areas, and of its broad applicability to dynamic selection and binding issues generally. A recent paper describes a bunch of simulations and related analytical work on one aspect of this issue- how oscillations work at a distance, when there is an inevitable lag in communication between two areas. 

Originally, theories of neural oscillation just assumed synchrony and did not bother too much with spatial or time delay separations. Synchrony clearly offers the opportunity of activating one area of the brain based on the activity of a separate driving area. For instance, primary visual areas might synchronize rhythmically with downstream areas and thus drive their processing of a sequence of signals, thus generating higher level activations in turn that ultimately constitute visual consciousness. Adding in spatial considerations increases complexity, since various areas of the brain exist at widely different separations, potentially making a jumble of the original idea. But on the other hand, feedback is a common, even universal, phenomenon in the brain, and requires some amount of delay to make any sense. Feedback needs to be (and anatomically must be) offset in time to avoid instant shut-down or freezing. 

Perhaps one aspect of anatomical development is to tune the brain so that certain coalitions can form with useful sequentially delays, while others can not, setting in the anatomical concrete a certain time-delay characteristic for each anatomically connected group. Indeed, it is known that myelination- the process of white matter development during childhood and early adulthood- speeds up axonal conduction, thus greatly altering the delay characteristics of the brain. Keeping these delays tuned to produce usable coalitions for thought could be a significant hurdle as this development proceeds, and explain some of the deep alterations of cognition that accompany it. The opportunity to assemble more wide-ranging coalitions of entrained neurons is obviously beneficial to complex thought, but just how flexible are such relations? Could the speeding up of one possible coalition destroy a range of others?

The current paper simply makes the case that delays are perfectly conducive to oscillatory entrainment, and also that regions with higher frequencies tend to more effectively drive downstream areas with slightly lower intrinsic frequencies, though other relationships can also exist. Both phenomena contribute to assymmetric information flow, from one area to the next, given oscillatory entrainment. The computer simulations the authors set up were relatively simple- populations of a hundred neurons with some inhibitory and most excitatory, all behaving as closely as possible to natural neurons, modestly inter-connected, with some connections to another second similar population, and each given certain stable or oscillatory inputs. Each population showed a natural oscillation, given normal behavior of neurons (with inhibitory feedback) and a near-white noise input baseline that they injected for each population. On top of that, they injected oscillatory inputs as needed to drive each population's oscillations to perform the experiment, at particular frequencies and phases.

The authors manipulated the phase delay between the two populations (small delta), and also manipulated the frequency mismatch between them (called de-tuning, big delta). This led to a graph like shown above, where each has its own axis and leads to a regimes (red) of high entrainment (B) and information transfer (C). The degree of entrainment is apparent in the graphs in D, taken from the respective black points in B, with the driver population in red, the receiver population in blue, as diagramed in A. In this case, practically all the points are in red zones, and thus show substantial entrainment.

While this simulation method appears quite powerful, the paper was not well-written enough, and the experiments not clear enough, to make larger points out of this work. It is one small piece of a larger movement to pin down the capabilities and exact nature and role of neural oscillations in the brain- a role that has been tantalizing for a century, and is at last starting to be appreciated as central to cognition.

Based on the following articles:

• "Transmission delays and frequency detuning can regulate information flow between brain regions"
• "Rhythms for Cognition: Communication through Coherence"
• "Portraits of communication in neuronal networks"

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Who Can be a Shaman? Who Must be a Shaman?

Pasaquan and the modern Shamanism of St. EOM, Eddie Owens Martin.

While not religious, I am fascinated by religion. This mode of thought and experience is obviously instinctive, patently irrational, and strenuously defended and rationalized via theology, apologetics, and other formerly respectable modes of thought, not to mention jihad and other sorts of brute power. We are (mostly) in a much better position today than in the old days when every political system had its state religion, and woe betide anyone caught thinking crosswise. Yet in the even earlier days of our species, religion was much more free-form, and while the instinct of religion is/was shared universally, its expression varied widely among far-flung, isolated peoples. We may generally call it shamanism. The first ingredient was an acceptance that some people care a lot more about spiritual matters than others do. Typically this is because they are misfits, maybe mentally disturbed, and have a heightened appreciation of the unreality of this reality that we think inhabit. Mind-altering drugs provide a glimpse of this widened perspective, and naturally comprise a central part of many shamanistic sacraments.

It is striking how the shared appreciation of an alternate reality, whether though official scripture, traditional dogma, or via ecstatic worship practices or mind-altering drugs, contributes to social bonding and personal psychological healing- which are the ultimate positive impacts of religion. Maybe the starkest naturalistic reality, now that we have evolved to appreciate its full horror, is incompatible with psychic health. Maybe an alternate, colorful, humane, and supportive reality is essential, and is particularly binding and healing if everyone shares it, almost regardless of its particular nature or irrationality. But on the other hand, even religions of intolerance, war, human sacrifice and cannibalism have sustained long-lived cultures, so the binding may take precedence over the humane-ness.

Ideologies and value systems are in play as well. Societies run on particular views of what is right, who counts, what is meaningful, etc. While these touch on empirical reality in some respects, their values and social apparatus are relatively untethered, free to valorize some, deprecate others, and place values on obscure things and odd activities. A misfit will be, by definition, more likely to suffer under the ambient ideology and prone to seek an alternative. Whether the shaman supports the current culture or seeks to subvert it, her work is critical in framing a social ideology that most other members of society hardly even know exists, and are not generally capable of shaping or grappling with consciously.

At its best, shamanism provides more than a narrative or theory about the unseen forces that run the world. It also centers the society with a purposeful narrative of its existence and the essential part each member plays in its continuance. It can heal individuals via the power of this social cohesion- as even medical science is beginning to recognize- since even without any objective medicine whatsoever, the rituals of care, support, and confidence are themselves powerful expressions of our social nature and aids to healing.

But what about today? We are heading into a post-religious world, where neither shamanism nor mainline theology rings true, capitalist ideology reigns, and social atomization is in part the result. It was jarring and intriguing to run across an odd TV program about an autodidactic shaman in Georgia, Eddie Owens Martin, who died in 1986. As a gay man in rural Georgia of the early 1900's, he fled to New York and led an underground life, which led to a career in fortune telling. Eventually he inherited a property in Georgia, and moved back on his own terms, using the proceeds from his fortune telling to build a spiritual retreat / theme park, with ornate decoration throughout.

St. EOM painting from Pasaquan

The connection between fortune telling and other facets of free-form shamanism are obvious. Martin, who renamed himself St. EOM, was obviously a charismatic person, and attracted helpers who attended ceremonies and helped with the painting. There was a hair theme, where Martin thought that he received messages from the gods through hair that had to be pointed upward. After he went bald, he resorted to pointing the ends of his extensive beard to the sky in order to maintain this connection. And what about all the symbology? It seems to consist of benevolent faces and highly colorful geometric designs, as are common in other spiritual and ceremonial settings. It looks like an effort to capture positive and healing material from the archetypes, which are partly eternal, and partly influenced by the culture of the day, where multiracial themes of harmony were coming to prominence.

All this reminded me strongly of two other shamans of the day, Carl Jung and Walt Disney. Where Martin was a spontaneous and demotic shaman, Jung come at it from a scholarly, indeed logorrheic perspective, producing book after book of memories, dreams, reflections, and rationalizations by which he straddled the scientific and credulus approaches to spiritualism. Most evocative was his Red Book, which features highly colorful dreamscapes full of pregnant symbols and meaning, harvested from his forays into the inner world of his own fixations and archetypes.

Lastly, Disney obviously shared the fantasy and dream motivations of Martin, though seemingly without much of the spiritual baggage. Disney was also moved in some mysterious way to make these fantasies concrete by creating theme parks where this positive message of colorful suspension of reality was given relentless and popular expression. These are demotic shamanism on a vast scale, drained of any deeper significance other than the lightest symbology that fleetingly speaks to part of us that hopes for an escape from the humdrum and pressing constraints of reality.

• Another healing fantasy in glorious animation- Secret of the Kells.
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• Slavery.
• Crytocurrencies are a criminal accelerant- and should be banned. Not to mention being an environmental disgrace.

Mitochondria and the Ratchet of Doom

How do mitochondria escape Muller's ratchet, the genetic degradation of non-mating cells?

Muller's ratchet is one of the more profound concepts in genetics and evolution. Mutations build up constantly, and are overwhelmingly detrimental. So a clonal population of cells which simply divide and live out their lives will all face degradation, and no matter how intense the selection, will eventually end up mutated in some essential function or set of functions, and die out. This gives rise to an intense desire for organisms to exchange and recombine genetic information. This shuffling process can, while producing a lot of bad hands, also deal out some genetically good hands, purifying away deleterious mutations and combining beneficial ones.

This is the principle behind the meiotic sex of eukaryotes with large genomes, and also the widespread genetic exchange done by bacterial cells, via conjugation and other means. In this way, bacteria can stave off genetic obsolescence, and also pick up useful tricks like antibiotic resistance. But what about our mitochondria? These are also, in origin and essence, bacterial cells with tiny genomes which are critically essential to our well-being. They are maternally inherited, which means that the mitochondria from sperm cells, which could have provided new genetic diversity, are, without the slightest compunction, thrown away. This seriously limits opportunities for genetic exchange and improvement, for a genome that is roughly 16 thousand bases long and codes for 37 genes, many of which are central to our metabolism.

One solution to the problem has been to move genes to the nucleus. Most bacteria have a few thousand genes, so the 37 of the mitochondrial genome are a small remnant, specialized to keep local regulation intact, while the vast majority of needed proteins are encoded in the nucleus and imported through rather ornate mechanisms to take their places in one of the variety of the organelle's locations- inner matrix, inner membrane, inter-membrane space, or outer membrane.

The more intriguing solution, however, has been to perform constant and intensive quality control (with recombination) on mitochondria via a fission and fusion cycle. It turns out that mitochondria are constantly dividing and re-fusing into large networks in our cells. And there are a lot of them- typically thousands in our cells. Mitochondria are also capable of recombination and gene conversion, where parts of one DNA are over-written by copying another DNA molecule. This allows a modicum of gene shuffling among mitochondria in our cells. 

The fusion and fission cycle of mitochondria, where fissioned mitochondria are subject to evaluation for function, and disposal.

Lastly, there is a tight control process that eliminates poorly functioning mitochondria, called mitophagy. Since mitochondria function like little batteries, their charge state is a fundamental measure of health. A nuclear-encoded protein called PINK1 enters the mitochondria, and if the charge state is poor, it remains on the outer membrane to recruit other proteins, including parkin and ubiquitin, which jointly mark the defective mitochondrion for degradation through mitophagy. That means that it is engulfed in an autophagosome and fused with a lysozome, which are the garbage disposal / recycling centers of the cell, filled with acidic conditions and degradative enzymes.

The key point is that during the fission / fusion cycle of mitochondria, which happens over tens of minutes, the fissioned state allows individual or small numbers of genomes to be evaluated, and if defective, disposed of. Meanwhile, the fused state allows genetic recombination and shuffling, to recreate genetic diversity from the ambient mutation rate. Since mitochondria are the centers of metabolism, especially redox reactions, they are especially prone to high rates of mutation. So this surveillance is particularly essential. If all else fails, the whole cell may be disposed of via apoptosis, which is also quite sensitive to the mitochondrial state.

In oocytes, mitochondria appear to go through a particularly stringent period of fission, allowing a high level of quality control at this key point. Additionally, mitochondria then go through exponential growth and energy generation to make the oocyte, at which point those which more quality control discards the oocytes that are not up to snuff.

All this adds up to a pretty thorough method of purifying selection. Admittedly, little or no genetic material comes from outside the clonal maternal genetic lineage, but mutations are probably common enough that beneficial mutations arise occasionally, and one can imagine that there may be additional levels of selection for more successful mitochondria over less successful ones, in addition to the charge-dependent rough cut made by this mitophagy selection.

As the penetrating reader my guess, parkin is related to Parkinson's disease, as one of its causal genes, when defective. Neurons are particularly prone to mitochondrial dysfunction, due to their sprawled-out geography. The nuclear genes needed for mitochondria are made only in the cell body / nucleus, and their products (either as proteins, or sometimes as mRNAs) have to be ferried out to the axonal and dendritic periphery to supply their targets with new materials. Neurons have very active transport systems to do this, but still it is a significant challenge. Second, the local population of mitochondria in outlying processes of neurons is going to be small, making the fission/fusion cycle much less effective and less likely to eliminate defective genes and individual mitochondria, or make up for their absence if they are eliminated, leading to local energetic crises.

Cross-section of a neuronal synapse, with a sprinkling of mitochondria available locally to power local operations.

Papers reviewed here:

• "Mitochondrial fragmentation drives selective removal of deleterious mtDNA in the germline"
• "Avoiding organelle mutational meltdown across eukaryotes with or without a germline bottleneck"
• "Germline selection shapes human mitochondrial DNA diversity"
• "Mitochondrial Fusion, Fission and Autophagy as a Quality Control Axis: The Bioenergetic View"
• "Optimizing mitochondrial maintenance in extended neuronal projections"

• Get back to work. A special, CEO-sponsored cartoon from Tom Tomorrow.
• They are everywhere.
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This Starship has Gone off Course

Review of the Star Trek Discovery series.

At risk of outing myself, I do occasionally watch Star Trek franchise material. Their original series was incredibly hokey by today's standards, but contained a beloved kernel of curiosity and adventure, and the franchise later matured into a thoughtful and inspiring series in The Next Generation. The ensuing series, such as Deep Space Nine and Voyager, kept to similar themes, and had fine moments (such as the spiritual environment of Bajor, and its supernatural orbs, within their orb cabinets). The last series of the original franchise, Star Trek Enterprise, was sort of a dull affair, with particularly wooden acting, before it veered, in its last season, into total "war on terrorism" territory with torture and other gratitous violence. My watching of the movies has been spotty, and I won't comment on those, as they are not really at the heart of the franchise, as I see it.

What makes (or made) Star Trek special was its modicum of thoughtfulness and philosophy, in a medium and genre otherwise ridden with thoughtless stereotypes, plots, and action. Its genre originated in the Western, but evolved into something all its own, which now can be endlessly replicated, mocked, and spoofed. While fights, killing, and other elements of typical plots abound, there are also elements of curiosity, scientific pursuit, ethical conundrums, and genuine compassion. It is in some ways a workplace drama, but about people who are all passionate about the work they do, making its world one to look forward to, and its tasks ones of adventure. At its very best, it can interrogate relevant social dilemmas in a way that is distanced enough to be entertaining and novel, while incisive enough to pack a punch.

A lengthy and rich history, but what does the future hold?

The three more recent renditions of Star Trek have included an independent series by Seth McFarlane, (The Orville), and official reboots from Paramount including an animated series (Lower Decks), a Patrick Stewart vehicle (Star Trek: Picard), and its main series, Star Trek: Discovery. The Lower Decks offering has been delightful- a very snappy, funny, and intelligent spoof of the whole Star Trek concept,  (and those who watch it), located on the USS Cerritos, named after perhaps the most uninteresting city in California. Only one season has been put out so far, but it has been superb, and fundamentally consonant with the founding Star Trek ethos.

The Orville series has been perhaps the best of the new bunch, despite not being an official part of the franchise. All the names have been changed- such as a "Planetary Union", in place of the United Federation of Planets. While it was originally conceived as heavy on the humor- some quite juvenile- McFarlane was clearly (and perhaps invountarily) taken with the Star Trek concept, and has progressed, as the episodes went on, to more adventurous and serious plots, ending up with complex time travel and one of the most thrilling episodes of TV I have even experienced (season 2.20, concerning the Kaylons, whose name may derive from the Mary Kay franchise ... who knows?). With the third season, his ambitions may have outstripped his resources, in addition to running into a Covid-induced hiatus. That season may never appear.

Meanwhile, Paramount put most of its effort into the Star Trek: Discovery series. This is set slightly before the original series, and features tremendous production quality, and a typical mixed cast of aliens and ethnicities on the bridge. But something seems to have gotten lost along the way. We are immediately launched into a war with the Klingons, who are now so festooned with makeup that they look like giant toads. Rather than exploring strange new worlds and civilizations, we are cast right into a heart-pounding deathly fight with a baroque enemy, complete with gratuitous torture and operatic pomposity on both sides. It is like we have landed in a Die Hard 2 reboot instead of a Star Trek series. "Discovery", indeed!

One would think that, to an erstwhile fungal researcher, the mycelial spore drive central to the Discovery plots would be a welcome bit of fictional technology. The premise is that an invisible (if sparkly) fungal mycelium pervades the galaxy, allowing suitably tuned neural systems to map it out and then follow its paths by travel that is not warp 5, not warp 10, but instantaneous in time. The crew's first tuned neural system was a humble tardigrade microbe, blown up in the show to monster proportions and strength. Later they develop an interface to a crew member, who sacrifices his sanity to the need for speed. Even given the modest standards of Star Trek tech talk/science-y fiction, all this is absurdly ridiculous. While tardigrades may be able to stand exposure to space, they can hardly live there. Likewise with fungi and their mycelia, (not the same as spores), which need water like anyone else. These technologies are so transparently and carelessly grabbed from decade-old issues of Science News that it is embarrassing. If the writers could not come up with something even remotely plausible, it would have been better to devise a nonsense bit of techtalk, which has a storied history in the franchise.

On the whole, Discovery has been a severe disappointment, at least to someone with minimal tolerance for empty action plots. As of episode 9, I can only watch a few minutes at a time before hitting action-trauma overload. Thankfully, there is streaming. It would be unimaginable to watch this the old-fashioned way, as everyone did who was fortunate enough to see the original series over its first few decades of broadcast and syndication.

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UFOs, God, and the Evidence of Absence

Sometimes, what you can't see isn't really there. And why you may see it anyway requires some deeper consideration.

A recent New Yorker story resurrects the topic of unidentified flying objects. While drawing quite a bit of well-deserved humor from the field, it also teases some putatively serious observations, and notes that the field has gotten some high-level love from politicians like Harry Reed, Ted Stevens, and Marco Rubio. On the whole, it was disappointing to see mostly uncritical treatmtent of this retread story. Are any UFOs actually objects? The answer to that is almost universally no. Almost all turn out to be optical phenomena, which come in a startling variety that leave observers dumbfounded. The rest are mistaken aircraft, test rockets, balloons, and pranks of various sorts. Reports of UFOs have trailed off over the decades, as their cultural weight has diminished, and people's imaginations drift off to other preoccupations. Yet die-hards remain, finding conspiracies, coverups, and compelling evidence. What is one to say?

It is worth taking a big step back and asking why, over all this time, and over all the people who have been looking for clues, either for or against, nothing concrete has been found. There are no space ships, no alien bodies, no extra-terrestrial materials or technologies. There is nothing- nothing whatsoever to show for all the shocking observations, pregnant hints and leading questions. Nothing for all the political pressure and top-secret investigations.

We'd know if they were really coming.

It shouldn't have to be said, but I will say it anyway, that religion has similar evidence behind it. Namely none. For all the heartfelt convictions, the positive thinking, lovely intuitions, and entrenched tradition, the supernatural remains fugative from observation. Is this by definition? Not at all. Plenty of religious claims, and the ones that are most moving and effective in efforts of proselytization, are very this-worldly- the virgin births, the resurrections, the water from wine, the walking on water, the revelations directly from god, etc. 

While formal logic says that lack of evidence is not positive proof of absence, it is evidence for lack of evidence, which says alot about the momentous claims being made, about UFOs, as well as analogous conspiracies and super-powers. It is absurd to seek, after so many UFO sightings have been resolved as oddities of the atmosphere, of optical, even collective, illusion, innocent projects, or even pranks, for the "real" evidence, the true story behind the coverup, etc. It bespeaks an archetypal imagination, and, philosphically, a grasping at straws. 

Lack of evidence is a serious philosophical condition, in areas where evidence should be readily available and has been fervently sought. If aliens were routinely flying through the atmosphere, we have the technology to detect them. We have countless satellites looking down to earth as well as up into the heavens, at incredible resolutions. We are increasingly using radar to detect birds, in their migrating millions. Surely an alien spaceship would show up with little problem. Naturally, the aliens do not want to be detected, and have the technology to hide themselves from view, allowing only odd glimpses during unusual weather. Did I mention grasping at straws?

What was a scientific problem thus becomes, by process of elimination, a psychological problem. Why do alien and all-powerful beings have such a hold on our imaginations? Could it be that the constellation of childhood is phenomenally durable, causing us to assume/imagine parental figures in political, celestial, and philosophical spheres? We are right now falling atavistically into a renewed kingship psychological complexes with authoritarian figures, not only amongst the Republicans in the US, but all across the world from Brazil to India. After a couple of centuries of shaking off such fixations, it is disappointing how durable our imaginative and affiliative psychology is, and how fragile the discipline it takes to recognize that the parents are not out there, in whatever guise or color, and that we are fully responsible for our world.

• Religion and Q.
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• Notes on qualified immunity.

Aisha and Ali

Women's rights and the crackup of Islam.

I am reading the highly interesting book "The Heirs of the Prophet Muhammad", by Barnaby Rogerson. It takes a docu-drama and highly hagiographical approach, yet works in a lot of facts as well. It covers one of the most dynamic and transformative periods in world history, when the newly founded religion, Islam, swept out of Medina to defeat and convert its old enemies in Mecca, then progressively the rest of the Arabian peninsula, into the Byzantine stronghold across Syria and the Near East, the Persian empire, and lastly The Byzantine rump state of Egypt and points west. Let no one mistake Islam for a religion of peace. 

Muhammad left no succession plan, and wise heads got together in turn to appoint the first three successors to lead the community, Abu Bakr, Omar, and Uthman. These were each, in their own way, strong and very effective leaders, just the fortune that Islam needed to press its jihad against each of the neighboring empires. Riches started to flow into Medina, and by Uthman's reign, religious restrictions were eased, wealth spread, slaves and concubines proliferated, and an enormous baby boom occurred in the desert. But Uthman had planted the seeds of destruction, by appointing only his relatives to run the provinces- the Umayyads.

Uthman's reign reeked of nepotism, and he ended up assassinated in a revolt by disgruntled provincials, who took up the standard of Ali. Ali was one of Muhammad's earliest and closest converts, a son in law, war hero, and in personal and thelogical terms, an obvious choice as successor (or Caliph). Ali was acclaimed as Caliph right after the assassination, thus gaining the immediate enmity of all the Umayyads. And there were other problems, which had clearly led the earlier meetings of the companions of the prophet to choose other successors. First, Ali was not an effective leader. A true believer, yes, but starry-eyed, unrealistic, and unskilled in the tribal politics that underlay the new empire and faith. 

Aisha, on her camel, directing the battle against Ali, near  Basra. Turkish depiction, 16th century.

Second, Aisha loathed him. Betrothed to Muhammad at age 6, married at 9, Aisha was his favorite wife, of a stable that grew eventually to 12. Aisha remains a sort of Mary figure in Islam, and was granted a higher pension than any other figure after Muhammad's death, in recognition of her special position. She had once gotten into hot water after being left behind by a caravan, and was brought back to camp by a handsome soldier the next day. Tongues wagged, and eventually the gossip got so bad that Muhammad conjured a revelation from god absolving Aisha of any blame, and bringing heavy punishments on her accusers. What was Ali's role in all this? He had casually advised Muhammad that wives were cheap, and he should just divorce the inconvenient Aisha and be done with it. 

Now, when Ali needed help in his new role as Caliph, Aisha remembered, and whipped up a couple of Muhammad's companions into opposition, and led them personally across the desert to Basra, and into battle with Ali, the battle of the camel, which camel was Aisha's command post. Aisha lost, was personally wounded, and went into a life of retirement in Medina under Ali's protection, helping compile hidiths, providing recollections of the old days, and running a school for women. But the war against Ali went on from this fateful spark, and he gradually lost support to the wilier Umayyads. Thus, Aisha stands as a pivotal figure in Islam and world history, responsible in part for the disastrous Sunni-Shia split, but also a clear standard bearer for women's rights within the world of Islam, an aspect that has clearly been in occultation for some time, especially in what are ironically regarded as the more fundamentalist precincts of the faith.

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