Evolution Under (Even in) Our Noses

The Covid pandemic is a classic and blazingly fast demonstration of evolution.

Evolution has been "controversial" in some precincts. While tradition told the fable of genesis, evolution told a very different story of slow yet endless change and adaptation- a mechanistic story of how humans ultimately arose. The stark contrast between these stories, touching both on the family tree we are heir to, and also on the overall point and motivation behind the process, caused a lot of cognitive dissonance, and is a template of how a fact can be drawn into the left/right, blue/red, traditional/progressive cultural vortex.

This all came to a head a couple of decades ago, when in the process of strategic retreat, anti-evolution forces latched onto some rather potent formulations, like "just a theory", and "intelligent design". These were given a lot of think tank support and right wing money, as ways to keep doubt alive in a field that scientifically had been settled and endlessly ramified for decades. To scientists, it was the height of absurdity, but necessitated wading into the cultural sphere in various ways that didn't always connect effectively with their intended audience. But eventually, the tide turned, courts recognized that religion was behind it all, and kept it out of schools. Evolution has more or less successfully receded from hot-button status.

One of the many rearguard arguments of anti-evolutionists was that sure, there is short-term evolution, like that of microbes or viruses, but that doesn't imply that larger organisms are they way they are due to evolution and selection. That would be simply beyond the bounds of plausibility, so we should search for explanations elsewhere. At this point they were a little gun-shy and didn't go so far in public as to say that elsewhere might be in book like the Bible. This line of argument was a little ironic, since Darwin himself hardly knew about microbes, let alone viruses, when he wrote his book. The evidence that he adduced (in some profusion) described the easily visible signs of geology, of animals and plants around the world, (including familar domestic animals), which all led to the subtle, yet vast, implications he drew about evolution by selection. 

So it has been notable that the vistas of biology that opened up since that time, in microbiology, paleontology, genetics, molecular biology, et al., have all been guided by these original insights and have in turn supported them without fail. No fossils are found out of order in the strata, no genes or organisms parachute in without antecedents, and no chicken happens without an egg. Evolution makes sense of all of biology, including our current pandemic.

But you wouldn't know it from the news coverage. New variants arise into the headlines, and we are told to "brace" for the next surge, or the next season. Well, what has happened is that the SARS-COV2 virus has adapted to us, as we have to it, and we are getting along pretty well at this point. Our adaptation to it began as a social (or antisocial!) response that was very effective in frustrating transmission. But of late, it has been more a matter of training our immune systems, which have an internal selective principle. Between rampant infections and the amazing vaccines, we have put up significant protective barriers to severe illness, though not, notably, to transmission.

But what about the virus? It has adapted in the most classic of ways, by experiencing a wide variety of mutations that address its own problems of survival. It is important to remember that this virus originated in some other species (like a bat) and was not very well adapted to humans. Bats apparently have countless viruses of this kind that don't do them much harm. Similarly, HIV originated in chimpanzee viruses that didn't do them much harm either. Viruses are not inherently interested in killing us. No, they survive and transmit best if they keep us walking around, happily breathing on other people, with maybe an occasional sneeze. The ultimate goal of every virus is to stay under the radar, not causing its host to either isolate or die. (I can note parenthetically that viruses that do not hew to this paradigm, like smallpox, are typically less able to mutate, thus less adaptable, or have some other rationale for transmission than upper respiratory spread.)

And that is clearly what has happened with SARS-COV2. Local case rates in my area are quite high, and wastewater surveilance indicates even higher prevalence. Isolation and mask mandates are history. Yet hospitalizations remain very low, with no one in the ICU right now. Something wonderful has happened. Part of it is our very high local vaccination rate, (96% of the population), but another part is that the virus has become less virulent as it has adapted to our physiology, immune systems, media environment and social practices, on its way to becoming endemic, and increasingly innocuous. All this in a couple of years of world-wide spread, after billions of infections and transmissions.

The succession (i.e. evolution) of variants detected in my county. 

The trend of local wastewater virus detection, which currently shows quite high levels, despite mild health outcomes.

So what has the virus been doing? While it has many genes and interactions with our physiology, the major focus has been on the spike protein, which is most prominent on the viral surface, is the first protein to dock to specific human proteins (the ACE2 cell surface receptor), and is the target of all the mRNA and other specific subunit vaccines. (As distinct from the killed virus vaccines that are made from whole viruses.) It is the target of 40% of the antibodies we naturally make against the whole virus, if we are infected. It is also, not surprisingly, the most heavily mutated portion of the virus, over the last couple of years of evolution. One paper counts 45 mutations in the spike protein that have risen to the level of "variants of concern" at WHO. 

"We found that most of the SARS-COV-2 genes are undergoing negative purifying selection, while the spike protein gene (S-gene) is undergoing rapid positive selection."

Structure of the spike protein, in its normal virus surface conformation, (B, C), and in its post-triggering extended conformation that reaches down into the target cell's membrane, and later pulls the two together. Top (in B, C) is where it binds to the ACE2 target on respiratory cells, and bottom is its anchor in the viral membrane coat (D shows it upside-down). At top (A) is the overall domain structure of the protein, in its linear form as synthesized, especially the RBD (receptor binding domain) and the two protease cleavage sites that prepare it for eventual triggering.

The spike protein is a machine, not just a blob. As shown in this video, it starts as a pyramidal blob flexibly tethered to the viral surface. Binding the ACE2 proteins in our respiratory tracts triggers a dramatic re-organization whereby this blob turns into a thin rope, which drops into the target cell. Meanwhile, the portion stuck to the virus unfolds as well and turns into threads that wind back around the newly formed rope, thereby pulling the virus and the target cell membrane together and ultimately fusing them. This is, mechanistically, how the virus gets inside our cells.

The triggering of the spike protein is a sensitive and adjustable process. In related viruses, the triggering is more difficult, and waits till the virus is engulfed in a vesicle that taken into the cell, and acidified in the normal process of lysosomal destruction / ingestion of outside materials. The acidification triggers these viral spike proteins to fire and release the virus into the cell. Triggering also requires cleavage of the spike protein with proteases that cut it at two locations. Other related viruses sometime wait for a target host protease to do the honors, but SARS-COV2 spike protein apparently is mostly cleaved during production by its originating host. This raises the stakes, since it can then more readily trigger, by accident, or once it finds proper ACE2 receptors on a target host. One theme of recent SARS-COV2 evolution is that triggering has become slightly easier, allowing the virus to infect higher up in the respiratory system. The original strains set up infections deep in the lung, but recent variants infect higher up, which lessens the systemic risks of infection to the host, promotes transmissibility, and speeds the infection and transmission process. 

The mutations G339D, N440K, L452R, S477N, T478K, and E484K in the spike region that binds to ACE2 (RBD, or receptor binding domain) promotes this interaction, raising transmissibility. (The nomenclature is that the number gives the position of the amino acid in the linear protein sequence, and the letters give the original version of the amino acid in one letter code (start) and in the mutated version (end)). Overall, mutations of the spike protein have increased the net charge on the spike protein significantly in the positive direction, which encourages binding to the negatively charged ACE2 protein. D614G is not in this region, but is nearby and seems to have similar effects, stabilizing the protein. The P681 mutation in one of the cleaved regions promotes proteolysis by the enzyme furin, thus making the virus more trigger-able. 

What are some other constraints on the spike protein? It needs to evade our vaccines and natural immunity, but has seemingly adapted to a here-and-gone infection style, though with periodic re-infection, like other colds. So any change is good for the purpose of camouflage, as long as its essential functions remain intact. The N-terminal, or front, domain of the spike protein, which is not involved directly in ACE2 binding, has experienced a series of mutations of this kind. An additional function it seems to have is to mimic a receptor for the cytokine interleukin 8, which attracts neutrophils and encourages activation of macrophages. Such mimicry may reduce this immune reaction, locally. 

In comparison to all these transmissibility-enhancing mutations, it is not clear yet where the mutations that decrease virulence are located. It is likely that they are more widely distributed, not in the gene encoding the spike protein. SARS-COV2 has a remarkable number of genes with various interactions with our immune systems, so the scope for tuning is prodigious. If all this can be accomplished in a couple of years, image what a million, or a billion, years can do for other organisms that, while they have slower reproduction cycles and more complicated networks of internal and external relations, still obey that great directive to adapt to their circumstances.

• Late link, on receptor binding vs immune evasion tradeoffs.
• Yes, chimpanzees can talk.
• The rich are getting serious about destroying democracy.
• Forced arbitration is, generally, unconscionable and should be illegal.
• We could get by with fewer nuclear weapons.
• Originalism would never allow automatic or semiautomatic weapons.